Opinion | Madhya Pradesh Elections: BJP has a lot going for it; balancing caste interests key

Abhinav Prakash Singh

The 2018 Vidhan Sabha election promises to be the most closely contested elections in Madhya Pradesh in recent history. After ruling for 15 years, the BJP has to defend against an anti-incumbency sentiment. Its task is a little bit easier with the factional infighting within the Congress, the main opposition party.

While the elections may well be decided by the personal appeal of Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and the satisfactory governance record of the BJP, balancing caste interests will play a key part in this milieu. In the peculiar social set up of the state, while explicit caste politics has been largely absent so far, powerful caste lobbies have started to assert themselves.

The state politics is fragmented into its constituent regions like Mahakoshal, Chambal, Vindhya Pradesh, Madhya Bharat with different social and economic dynamics. The Vindhya Pradesh (with a 14 percent Brahmin population) and the Madhya Bharat (with a 9 percent Rajput population) have the highest proportion of upper castes and were the fulcrum of recent protests against reservations and the Scheduled Castes/Scheduled Tribes Act.

These protests pushed the BJP on the back foot and it appeared for a while that the Congress will be the natural beneficiary. However, the protests have dissipated and a vertical split in the anti-reservation upper-caste front SAPAKS (Saamanya Picchada Alpsankhyank Kalyan Samaj Sanstha) will end up benefiting the ruling BJP.

The power structure in the state has remained dominated by the upper caste due to various reasons such as legacy of the erstwhile princely states; but the most important reason is the fragmentation of the OBC (other backward class) and Dalits. Unlike its northern neighbours, there is no single caste in Madhya Pradesh which accounts for more than 5 percent population in all regions. This has prevented a consolidated challenge to the dominance of upper caste lobbies in the state power structure.

Also, what makes Madhya Pradesh stand out is the 21 percent share of the tribal population. But the lack of the social capital and economic power and inability to overcome inter-tribal differences means that the tribals have historically played the role of a passive partner in the ‘coalition of extremes’ with the Rajput-dominated Congress.

In recent years however, a sustained effort by the BJP backed by the grassroot work among the tribals by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has caused a significant shift towards the ruling party. In 2013, BJP won 31 out of the 47 seats reserved for the tribals.

Moreover, it was only under the BJP that the upper caste monopoly over the post of the chief minister was broken. It is also a reason that apart from the Yadavs, other OBCs have been favourably inclined towards the BJP. Similarly, except Jatavs, most Dalit castes have been the voters of the BJP.

Upper castes are divided between both Congress and BJP with Rajputs tilting more towards the Congress. This makes the tribal vote a decisive factor in the upcoming elections. But of late, there is a brewing resentment among the tribals over a range of socio-economic issues with new assertiveness under the banner of the JAYS (Jai Adivasi Yuva Shakti). It remains to be seen how BJP will be able to retain its support among the restless tribal youth demanding employment and modern amenities. The split in the JAYS after its founder Hiralal Alawa joined Congress may also help the BJP tide over the challenge for now but it will have to recalibrate its approach towards the tribal population.

Shivraj Singh Chauhan has also nurtured women as a voting block with focused policies like Laadli Laxmi and Mukhyamantri Kanyadaan. This negates the traditional disadvantage of the BJP with respect to women voters. In fact, in his 13-year tenure Chauhan has always focused on social sector spending as an election strategy targeting all social groups and the future voters in the school and colleges. Whether that will pay dividends will be tested in this election. But when combined with the push by the Prime Minister Modi on housing, cooking gas, electricity and Mudra loans, they have created a goodwill for the government despite resentment on issues like corruption.

While anti-incumbency against the party has had limited impact in the past, the anti-incumbency against the sitting MLA has been an important factor. So, much will depend on the ticket distribution and booth level organisational strength and mobilisation.

Another factor in the election will be the personal popularity of the Prime Minister Modi who is campaigning extensively. It is Modi’s popularity which will also be tested apart from the resilience of Shivraj and resurgence of the Congress. In the end what may work in the favour of the BJP is the Shivraj factor backed by the appeal of Modi and the organisational strength of the party backed by the RSS.

Despite the signs of resurgence, Congress remains a divided house whose organisation is no match for what BJP can deploy. But for the long-term perspective it will be of interest to see how the different social groups vote as it is the recalibration of the caste and communities that will have a decisive impact in the national elections next year.

(Abhinav Prakash Singh is assistant professor, Shri Ram College of Commerce, University of Delhi, Delhi. Views are personal)

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