Moneycontrol Pro Panorama | Rain, rain, come again

Weather forecasters the Indian Meteorological Department and SkyMet have both said this year the monsoon will be normal

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How beautiful is the rain…
How it clatters along the roofs,
Like the tramp of hoofs
How it gushes and struggles out
From the throat of the overflowing spout!

As we wait for the monsoon rains to materialise, you might want to sample this old poem from H.W. Longfellow.

The progress of the monsoons in the first week of the rainy season has been dismal. At an aggregate level, the deficit is 41 percent for the past eight days. North and central India, especially, have been hard hit.

True, these are early days and the start of the rains is often erratic. Weather forecasters the Indian Meteorological Department and SkyMet have both said this year the monsoon will be normal.

Another important yardstick to track for the Kharif crop is the water level in reservoirs across the country. At an aggregate level, reservoirs are now at 30 percent capacity. While the number looks alarming, note that it is 7 percent higher than last year and one-third higher than the last 10 years’ average.

While the monsoon is important for the rural economy every year, there is an added edge this year due to multiple factors.

We are coming off a heat wave which blighted the wheat crop. As a result, wheat procurement by the government has suffered. The Indian Express reported that the wheat stock in the government pool stood at 31 million tonnes on June 1, the lowest in 14 years. Rice stocks at around 50 million tonnes are about the same as a year ago, but the government possibly feels that it needs to encourage paddy cultivation to sustain the food security programme. Thus, the minimum support price for paddy too was raised by Rs 100 a quintal.

Secondly, inflation has bitten rural India more. Rural demand is weak. If the monsoon doesn’t turn up on time and in the required quantity over the required area, inflation could worsen, which could force the Reserve Bank of India to go in for sharper rate hikes.

To keep track of the rain’s quantity, spread and impact on the sowing season, we launched our seasonal Monsoon Tracker last week, exclusive for MC Pro subscribers. Bookmark the page and check for updates every Friday.

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Ravi Krishnan
Moneycontrol Pro