It is the season for big changes in Pakistan

Imran Khan’s removal from the election scene will be quite damaging for his Pakistan Tehrik e Insaf (PTI) party.

On August 5, 2023, Additional District and Sessions Judge Humayun Dilawar held former Prime Minister Imran Khan liable for the offence of corrupt practices under Section 174 of the Election Act, 2017, by making and publishing false statements/declarations (in Form `B’) in respect of assets acquired by way of gifts from Toshakhana (Treasury) and disposed of during years 2018-2019 and 2019-2020. Imran was sentenced to three years imprisonment, disqualified from contesting for public office for five years, and fined one lakh Pakistan rupees.

The judgment was not unexpected and comes after dilatory tactics employed by Imran’s legal team, questioning both the maintainability and jurisdiction of courts to entertain it, without focusing enough on merits. Earlier, the case languished in the court of Additional Sessions Judge Zafar Iqbal. It went back and forth to the Islamabad High Court and even the Supreme Court. Even on Aug 5, Imran’s lawyers, led by Khwaja Haris appeared at the last minute and claimed that they were deprived of the opportunity of being heard.

The possibility of judicial relief by benefit of appeal and suspension of the sentence remains but it will not remove Imran’s disqualification to contest elections. Even if he is given bail, he could be arrested by the National Accountability Bureau in the Al Qadir Trust land allocation case or any of the other criminal cases filed against him.

PTI Running Out Of Steam

Despite Imran’s calls to his supporters to protest, this time there were no massive demonstrations anywhere in Pakistan. Social media trolls did their bit to castigate the hasty judgment by Judge Humayun Dilawar, who left with his family for an eight-day training course in London.

Imran’s removal from the election scene will be quite damaging for his Pakistan Tehrik e Insaf (PTI) party. Not only will he lose the option to communicate with the outside world or on social media, his silence will badly impact PTI’s second-tier leadership, currently in the hands of former Foreign Minister, Shah Mehmood Quereshi.

Two of Imran’s diehard supporters are still in hiding – Hammad Azhar and Murad Saeed. If they can evade arrest, they could try to keep pro-Imran social media trolls active but Imran’s absence from the campaign trail will cripple his party, affect its electoral strategy and the process of awarding of tickets. Factionalism within could intensify.

Elections Only In 2024?

Meanwhile, the timing of the ensuing elections remains uncertain. Though Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is expected to seek dissolution of the National Assembly on August 9, which would entail holding it within 90 days, it has been decided to hold elections on the basis of the new Census. The Council of Common Interests approved its findings on August 5. Pakistan’s population now stands at 249.5 million, up from the 207.75 million recorded in 2017.

Though the composition of National Assembly seats from Pakistan’s four provinces is not expected to change, the Election Commission will have to undertake the delimitation of constituencies within provinces afresh. This will meet outstanding demands particularly from politicians of Balochistan and the Mohajir Quami Movement (MQM-Pakistan), who have been concerned because of under accounting of their support base in the greater Karachi agglomeration.

This process could extend the time frame for elections to February or even March, 2024, when Senate elections also become due.

Flux In High Offices

Attention will now shift to who will be appointed as caretaker Prime Minister. The names of financial expert, Hafiz Sheikh and Justice (retd) Tassaduq Hussain Jillani are doing the rounds. The Army will have the final say here.

Debate has continued within Pakistan Muslim League (PML- Nawaz) circles on the impending return from London of their leader – three-time former PM Nawaz Sharif – and whether he will be able to contest elections. Attempts made to circumvent legal disabilities have still not received clear cut assent from the Supreme Court.

Nawaz Sharif may delay his return till after Chief Justice Umar Ata Bandial demits office on September 16. The other big question which will confront his party would be Nawaz’s acceptability before the military establishment. He could be pipped to the tape by his brother, Shehbaz.

Pakistan President Arif Alvi’s term is also coming to a close by early September. There is talk that he may be enabled to continue. If he resigns, Senate Chairman Sadiq Sanjrani could become acting President, but his Senate term ends in March, 2024.

One other imponderable will be the role of new Chief Justice, Qazi Faez Isa and how he responds to the extended terms of the Caretaker regimes, both at the national and provincial level.

Rana Banerji is a former Special Secretary, Cabinet Secretariat. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.