India-US 2+2 Dialogue | The significance of Pompeo’s visit a week before US elections

In a first for any high level United States interaction with India, the ‘why’ behind a visit from Washington DC has just become more important than the ‘what’ surrounding that visit. Why is Mike Pompeo, the US Secretary of State, travelling to India a week before his country chooses its next President?

If Joe Biden becomes US’ 46th President, the US-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue on October 27 will be a waste of India’s time as Washington’s priorities for mankind will dramatically change after four years of making conventional US policies stand on their head. The entire foreign policy team in Washington that External Affairs and Defence Ministers S Jaishankar and Rajnath Singh have to deal with, will also be a different crop of people.

Even if Donald Trump is re-elected, there is no certainty that Trump’s second term will see continuity in policies. For at least 18 months now, US foreign policy has been dictated solely by electoral considerations and nothing else mattered. A superpower’s statecraft cannot forever be in election mode.

More important, there is no need for Trump in his second term to craft policies that bring him votes because it will be his last term in the White House. By his nature, Trump couldn’t care less if his successor is a Republican or a Democrat. In the style of Louis XV of France, Trump’s attitude will be après moi le deluge — after me the deluge. Many US Presidents engage in what they truly want to do only in their second term.

When Barack Obama sought Vice President Hamid Ansari’s advice on Iran as India’s most insightful diplomat on Tehran and Qom, and Ansari gave him sage advice, the US President responded that he was “not in a position to do” what was proposed. Yet, in his second term, Obama did exactly what Ansari suggested: the essence of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, better known as the Iran nuclear deal, came from Ansari’s conversation with Obama during his first visit to India.

Had Obama done the nuclear deal with Iran his first term, his biggest opposition for re-election in 2012 would have come from the American Jewish lobby, which may well have got him defeated. So, the Iran deal was kept on the backburner until the second term.

No one can hazard any predictions on what Trump would do on the foreign policy front in his second term, if re-elected. It certainly cannot be taken for granted that he will have a lovefest with India or that ties will be wrinkle-free. So, from India’s point of view, it would have made more sense to have the next 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue later this year, if Trump is re-elected because there would be greater clarity on issues. If it is a Biden presidency, a more productive 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue would have made sense in early to mid-2021.

However, not all diplomatic interactions are about results or takeaways, and India tactfully agreed to the 2+2 meeting which Pompeo badly needs. Crystal gazers in Washington DC are unanimous that Pompeo will not be Secretary of State in the next Trump administration, not beyond a year at the most. After four years as US’ spy-in-chief and then as top diplomat, Pompeo is itching to get back into active politics in his native Kansas, which is a safe bet for Republicans even in these challenging times for the Grand Old Party.

For several months in 2019, after Pat Roberts, the four-term US Senator Kansas announced his retirement, Pompeo mulled a run for that open Senate seat. According to the Washington DC grapevine, Trump advised his most loyal lieutenant to make a bid for the presidency in 2024, instead. Trump does not consider his colourless Vice President Mike Pence to be a winnable presidential candidate.

Trump also has reservations about another Republican presidential aspirant, former South Carolina Governor, Nikki (Randhawa) Hailey. So, as of now, Pompeo’s sights are fixed on the presidency in 2024. Everything Pompeo does and says is designed to advance his presumptive candidacy. If a high profile visit to New Delhi is what Pompeo seeks, why not humour him as a potential presidential candidate in 2024, is India's expedient rationale for hosting the 2+2 Ministerial now.

Breaking a sacrosanct convention that Secretaries of State do not get involved in partisan politics, Pompeo addressed this year’s Republican National Convention. He compounded this sacrilege by delivering his speech from Jerusalem while on official travel on taxpayer money.

Pompeo’s speech, with Jerusalem’s skyline as backdrop, was replete with symbolism and was intended to appeal to the Jewish American community. For those who are superstitious in Pompeo’s inner circle, a trip to India is important before his presidential bid.

Hillary Clinton visited India for what was called the US-India Strategic Dialogue, the predecessor of the 2+2 ministerial, and the visit proved lucky for her in winning the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination in the last election. John Kerry, who was the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate in 2004 too visited India as Senator before his successful bid for the White House.

If Pompeo gets his party’s nomination for the White House in four years, it may well become a tradition for presidential aspirants to visit India before they plunge into their parties’ primaries. From Pompeo’s point of view, that is reason enough to visit New Delhi under the cover of a 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue, which is otherwise likely to be barren although both sides will try to window-dress its outcome.

KP Nayar reported from Washington as a foreign correspondent for 15 years. Views are personal.