Maldives: India should wait and watch as pro-China Muizzu elected president 

Mohamed Maldives of the People's National Congress is the new President of Maldives. (Source: REUTERS/ Dhahau Naseem)

The going just became tougher for India in the Maldives. It isn’t only Ibu Solih who has lost the presidential polls in the crucial Indian Ocean Region (IOR) archipelago. In a way, it's a defeat for India as well, having invested so much diplomatic heft and funding during Solih’s five-year tenure as the president to consolidate its influence in the country to counter China’s inroads there.

On Saturday, Maldivians voted to elect the China-leaning opposition candidate Mohamed Muizzu as their new president, queering the pitch for India in a country that’s a key maritime neighbour. Muizzu was expected to win the presidential runoff, having got more votes than the India-friendly Solih in the first round of voting held on September 9. Fielded by the People’s Party of Maldives-People’s National Congress (PNC) combine, Muizzu carried out an election campaign propelled by a sharp anti-India rhetoric. It virtually became a geo-political battle between India and China to have the Maldives within their orbit. 

Now, the Maldivians have delivered their verdict. Muizzu, who belongs to the PNC, got 52.2 percent of the votes, while Solih secured 44.6 percent, indicating that the anti-India campaign found support among the people. To be sure, the split in the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) also contributed in no small measure to Muizzu’s victory. After ties between Solih and party co-founder and former president Mohamed Nasheed soured, the latter left the MDP to form his own party, The Democrats. Nasheed also fielded his own presidential candidate, taking away a small but nonetheless valuable percentage of votes, damaging Solih’s electoral prospects. With Muizzu now elected, India is left with little option but to deal with his government. New Delhi was swift in its outreach to the President-elect with prime minister Narendra Modi congratulating him and assuring him that “India remains committed to strengthening the time-tested India-Maldives bilateral relationship and enhancing our overall cooperation in the IOR”.

Tough Road Ahead For India

But New Delhi knows well that a difficult road lies ahead, unlike the smooth run it enjoyed under Solih who pursued a vigorous ‘India First’ policy. It would have wanted Solih to win a second term given its huge strategic stakes in the archipelago but that was not to be. And, Maldives may once again pivot towards China, which has been eagerly waiting to reclaim strategic space in the archipelago. Given Muizzu’s oft-repeated assertion that he will ensure the independence and sovereignty of the Maldives — an oblique reference to Indian influence — bilateral relations are unlikely to be as close and robust as they were under Solih. Indeed, it was this very proximity to New Delhi that was exploited by the opposition to spearhead an ‘India Out’ campaign, which was eventually banned by the Solih government through a decree. But, the campaign did find resonance among a section of the population. 

The 46-year-old Muizzu, a civil engineer by training, is currently the mayor of Malé. Former president and PPM leader Abdulla Yameen, under whom India-Maldives ties nose-dived, is seen as Muizzu’s mentor. He, however, had endorsed Muizzu’s candidature for the presidency somewhat reluctantly after he was unable to contest himself. His conviction in a corruption case for which he’s serving a prison sentence made him ineligible to run for election. New Delhi will now be walking on eggshells as it negotiates its relationship with Malé. During his campaigning, Muizzu had declared that he will pursue closer ties with China. Yameen, too, was charmed by China as president. He welcomed loans from Beijing for infrastructure projects, unmindful of the debt trap the Maldives later found itself in. It was also under Yameen’s presidency that Maldives joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In such a scenario, New Delhi’s outreach to Malé now will be faced with daunting challenges as it pursues its own strategic interests in the archipelago.

What’s At Stake For India

For India, at stake are not just the numerous infrastructure projects being executed with Indian assistance under the development cooperation model but also defence and security cooperation. India had pulled out all stops as it backed the Solih government in an effort to keep China at bay. It provided financial assistance worth millions of dollars by way of grants, lines of credit (LoCs) for infrastructure projects and budgetary support for an economy beleaguered by the pandemic. It also funded the ambitious Greater Male Connectivity Project with a $400 million LoC and $100 million grant. The project is seen as a counter to the China-executed Maldives-China Friendship project, a 1.39-kilometre bridge linking Malé to Hulhule island, and inaugurated during Yameen’s presidency. It’s unlikely Muizzu will halt these people-centric projects, focused as they are on connectivity, housing, health, water, sanitation and the like. India, however, will still be anxious knowing that the new regime in Malé is not averse to Chinese funding and could well thumb its nose at Indian assistance. India will also closely watch what the PPM-PNC alliance does with the FTA that was signed with China during Yameen’s presidency, but is yet to be implemented.

With the Maldives being a vital element of India’s drive to secure its strategic interests in the IOR, what would be even more worrying is the fate of the robust bilateral defence and security cooperation that was stepped up under Solih.  India’s external affairs minister S Jaishankar earlier this year had emphasised the importance of the two countries working together for regional peace and security during a visit to the Maldives earlier this year. The PPM-PNC alliance vociferously campaigned against what they claimed was an Indian military presence in their country, something that was denied by Solih. But this campaign gained traction in the archipelago, and it remains to be seen if Muizzu will ask India to take back the two helicopters and a Dornier aircraft gifted to the Maldives, among other things. While the aircraft was given more recently, the two choppers had become a bone of contention during Yameen’s presidency as he demanded that India take them back. Election rhetoric may still, of course, give way to pragmatism for Muizzu in his new role. 

Muizzu’s Domestic Challenges

Apart from negotiating foreign policy imperatives, Muizzu may grapple with problems in the domestic realm as well. He had promised he would have Yameen released from prison. While he may manipulate the release, the power-sharing between Muizzu and Yameen could lead to friction. After all, even Solih and Nasheed, childhood friends and political brothers in arms, had a falling out. Yameeen, who was aspiring to be the president, is unlikely to remain on the margins and may have his own ideas about governance. But, any infighting within the ruling alliance will not bode well for the archipelago’s stability. Muizzu will also have to deal with an economy still recovering from the pandemic and a country dealing with mounting debts and depleting forex reserves.

There is another important factor that could impact his tenure. Nasheed has been lobbying for a parliamentary system in the Maldives for long in his quest to become the prime minister. It was a demand he raised often even during his own party-led government. He had managed to extract an assurance from outgoing president Solih that a referendum would be held on this issue in late October. With the new president only to be sworn in in mid-November, it’s as yet unclear if such a referendum will be held now. Amid all this, India will have to wait and watch how things unfold with strategic patience.

Parul Chandra is a New Delhi-based senior journalist who writes on foreign affairs. Twitter: @ParulChandraP. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.