Maldives’ new pro-China govt. may not be anti-India

Amidst rising Sino-Indian rivalry, Maldives witnesses political conflicts between pro-India and pro-China factions.

A new foreign policy challenge is likely to crop up for India in its neighbourhood with the victory of the pro-Chinese candidate, Mohamed Muizzu, in Saturday’s presidential election in Maldives.

That Muizzu, the coalition candidate of the People’s National Congress and the Progressive Party of Maldives, contested on an anti-India plank and won, should concern New Delhi about its position in this strategically important archipelago in the Indian Ocean.

Muizzu won with 54 percent of the votes against the pro-India incumbent President Mohamed Solih, who managed 46 percent. Muizzu also led Solih in the first round of the elections on September 9, but couldn’t secure 50 percent of the votes, necessitating a second round of polling.

For India, Maldives holds high strategic value because of its location at the crossroads of vital maritime routes in the Indian Ocean. Ensuring maritime security and safeguarding the free movement of ships through these waters is of vital importance to India.

It is also of strategic importance for China and the West. Much of China’s oil and other resources passes through these shipping lanes. But it is also seen as a gateway to larger geopolitical influence and control over the Indian Ocean.

In recent years, the US and Australia have started showing interest in Maldives as part of their larger Indo-Pacific strategy in view of China’s assertive policies in the region.

As Sino-Indian rivalry has increased in the past few years, Maldives has seen tussles between pro-India leaders and the pro-China group of politicians.

Solih was seen as being close to India, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi had attended his inaugural function after he became the Maldives President in 2018.

Since Solih came to power, he has brought Maldives much closer to India while distancing it from China. China’s investment and influence in the country had surged under the previous regime of President Abdullah Yameen, from 2013 to 2018.

Muizzu was not the first choice for the anti-India group. But Yameen was in jail for corruption and couldn’t contest the elections. Muizzu is widely known to be close to China. As mayor of Male in the Yameen government, he took the lead in constructing a bridge at a cost of $200 million that was funded by China under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Muizzu worked in other important posts too, in Yameen’s government.

Yameen had also signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with China and encouraged increased investment from Beijing in the country. Under his government there was also speculation over China building a naval base in one of the islands of the Maldives archipelago.

But Yameen was thrown out of power over corruption charges and rising concerns of Maldives getting into a Chinese debt trap. Former President Mohammed Nasheed claims that of the country’s $3.4 billion foreign debt, 70 percent is owed to China.

But India’s growing presence also seemed to bother the people of Maldives, despite the support India had extended to the country in a wide range of areas.

Since 2018, India has spent over $2 billion in repaying Maldives’ debt and developing its infrastructure, health sector, housing, women, and youth. India’s showpiece has been the 6.7 km-long Greater Male Connectivity Project that links the capital, Male, to three other islands over the sea, built at a cost of $500 million.
Under the Solih government, India and Maldives had built a strong defence and security partnership. India supplied Maldives with not only naval vessels and aircraft, but also trained its coast guard and security personnel.

However, a robust “India Out” campaign launched by Muizzu and his coalition partners in recent months gathered ground in the lead-up to the elections.

The accusation that the government has allowed Indian troops to be stationed in the country, compromising its sovereignty and independence, finally culminated in the defeat of the pro-India Solih.

Impact on India

For India, keeping out a pro-China regime in Maldives is extremely important. India and China are engaged in a military faceoff along their border since May 2020. Their rivalry has also intensified in other parts of south Asia and the Indian Ocean region in recent years.

Apart from safeguarding Indian investments in Male, there are serious security implications for New Delhi. Maldives is barely 70 nautical miles away from the Lakshadweep islands and India’s west coast.

Any inimical force in Maldives can harm Indian interests not only in the archipelago but also in the region.

However, experts point out that despite the defeat of Solih and a pro-China regime being in power in Maldives, the country is unlikely to do anything drastic vis a vis India. Because, despite the growing Chinese interest in the country, India is a traditional ally and its chief security provider.

Therefore, the new government of President Muizzu is likely to strike a balance between China and India, the two regional powers that are relevant for Maldives’ future and growth.