OPINION | India needs to rethink its Central Asia strategy after the Ayni airbase exit

The loss of Ayni airbase can serve as a driver for renewed, long-term Indian engagement with Central Asia

As the fog around India’s ownership—or rather, lack of it—of the Ayni airbase was clearing last week, miles away in Washington DC, President Donald Trump was courting the presidents of the five Central Asian republics—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Tajikistan, where the Ayni airbase is located and which India gave up after nearly two decades of operation, was among them.

The summit in Washington serves as a barometer of Central Asia’s growing importance in international relations and trade. Billions of dollars’ worth of deals were signed, reflecting how the states of the region are manoeuvring between their two giant neighbours—Russia and China.

Ayni Airbase: India’s Lost Strategic Foothold

India has been rather stoic about giving up the base. It was India’s only overseas military base, and the location could not have been more strategic. Tajikistan borders Afghanistan, China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. The airbase was situated north of the capital Dushanbe, approximately 20 km north of the sensitive Wakhan Corridor—the narrow strip of land running through Afghanistan’s Badakhshan province, connecting the country to China’s Xinjiang province and bordering Pakistan-occupied Kashmir to the south—making it an excellent listening post.

If reports circulating are true, India had no choice but to give it up, as the Tajik authorities did not extend the agreement on Ayni, which expired in 2022. Some have sought to rationalise this loss—arguing that since Ayni was important as an outreach point to both Afghanistan and PoK, India’s rapprochement with the Taliban made the base redundant. An even more implausible suggestion doing the rounds was that India relinquished Ayni because it had now acquired the Bagram airbase in Afghanistan.

The sobering truth is that India has lost a valuable strategic asset. It may not have been for want of trying—economically backward Tajikistan may have fallen prey to great power manoeuvring, leaving India squeezed out with few levers. Central Asia had already been identified by India as a strategically important region under the 2012 “Connect Central Asia” policy—and with good reason.

Central Asia’s Rising Global Significance

Central Asia, a strategically significant region spanning 4,003,451 sq. km with a population of 77 million, is rich in natural resources, including oil, gas and metals such as gold, silver, aluminium, bauxite and copper. Five per cent of the world’s natural gas reserves are found here. The region occupies a major geopolitical position—landlocked, extending from the Caspian Sea in the west to western China in the east. It is bordered by Russia to the north, and by Iran, Afghanistan and China to the south. Three of the Central Asian republics—Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan—share direct borders with Afghanistan.

More importantly, there has traditionally been a reservoir of goodwill towards India in these countries as they broke free from Soviet rule but retained much of the Soviet legacy. An enduring cultural bond was strengthened by Bollywood. Momentum in India’s engagement with the region was built by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to all five republics in 2015.

Given this background, ties with India should have flourished. Yet, more than three decades since independence, relations have not fully taken off. The full potential of geographical proximity and cultural affinity remains unrealised. A major factor is connectivity: though the region’s capitals are within a mere two to three hours’ flight from Delhi, there is no direct overland or sea route to them, as all Central Asian republics are landlocked. There is also, however, a perceived lack of sustained interest from the Indian side. Some observers feel India has taken the goodwill for granted.

Unrealised Potential in India–Central Asia Ties

It is not that India has not attempted to cultivate closer ties with the region. It has provided grants and loans, forged defence cooperation through joint military exercises, and seen Indian universities and companies establish a presence there. The Government of India offers ITEC scholarships, but initiatives have often been piecemeal and slow. There remains scope for far greater collaboration. Today, countries such as China, Turkey, South Korea and, of course, Russia, enjoy far greater visibility in the region than India.

Like the nations of Southeast Asia, the countries of Central Asia today are focused on trade and economic development. The average annual economic growth rate for the region over the past two decades has been 6.2%. Take Kazakhstan, for instance. It is the largest country and economy in the region; in 2024, its GDP exceeded USD 290 billion, attracting more than USD 15.7 billion in FDI that year. It has the world’s largest reserves of chromium and the second-largest reserves of uranium, along with 19 of the 34 critical minerals used by major economies—earning it the sobriquet “Saudi Arabia of critical minerals”. Consequently, it is being courted by the US, EU, China and others. Indian investments there are estimated at around USD 500 million.

“We would like much more Indian investment in numerous other sectors—green energy, IT, AI, food processing, metallurgy, pharmaceuticals, agriculture,” said Alibek Kuantarov, Deputy Foreign Minister of Kazakhstan, on the eve of the recently held Kazakhstan Global Investment Roundtable.

Reviving India’s Engagement Strategy

Kazakhstan has liberalised its laws to attract foreign investment across all sectors. Platforms such as the Astana International Financial Centre and Kazakh Invest offer a one-stop shop to facilitate foreign investments, business registration and joint ventures. Kazakh Invest Vice President Madiyar Sultanbek thanked the Investment Promotion Agency of India for sharing expertise on investment attraction and expressed plans for joint workshops between the two agencies. Earlier, Zhaslan Madiyev, Kazakhstan’s Minister of Digital Development, Innovations and Aerospace Industry, told this writer that Kazakhstan wished to emulate India’s success in digital payment systems.

There are thus numerous avenues through which India can step up its engagement with the region. The key for India lies in engaging patiently, consistently and across multiple sectors. Economic strength can be more easily translated into sustained strategic presence. The loss of Ayni, therefore, can serve as a driver for renewed, long-term Indian engagement with a region that is, in many ways, its extended neighbourhood.