OPINION | Bangladesh heads for strife as Jamaat and Awami League face off

Sentenced to death, but not done yet

No one, repeat no one, in Bangladesh or elsewhere who tracks Bangladesh was surprised by the death penalty — handed down by the International Crimes Tribunal in Dhaka — to former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her home minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal, for crimes against humanity. It was long known and awaited.

There is little point in questioning the legality of a verdict that was the result of a string of legally questionable decisions starting from the formation of the government. Those in power wanted to throw Hasina out of the ring. Some wanted to take revenge. Some more wanted it out of fear of retribution.

Jamaat’s the one pulling the strings

Jamaat-e-Islami–led Islamic forces are the key movers behind the verdict. They wanted to exhibit raw power and they did it.

The mobilisation of youth to destroy the remains of the Bangabandhu Museum at 32 Dhanmondi in Dhaka on the verdict day was symbolic. Showcasing mob power before TV cameras was the aim. India is their prime target.

The muted response of human-rights watchdogs to the Hasina verdict vis-à-vis their sharp criticism of the Liberation War crimes trial by Hasina is significant. India is alone in this contest and, as in 1971, Delhi is enjoying tacit support from Russia.

February 2026 election will present Islamists’ a chance to acquire power

There is no direct comparison between the two situations half a century apart. In 1971 Islamists opposed Liberation. The November 17 verdict is one key milestone for them to either acquire state power or get closer to it, through a highly managed election in February 2026.

The election will take place without Awami League. Jatiya Party may be allowed to contest just for show. They were not invited to political dialogue by the Yunus administration. A major force in the northern part of the country, they will not enjoy basic democratic space in this election.

Hasina’s authoritarianism versus the current one

True, Hasina won two Opposition-free elections and one rigged election. But she also faced severe criticism. Principal Opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) was consistently vocal. Domestic mainstream media was under pressure from the end of Hasina’s second term (2014–18). The gap was filled by social media and online outlets, mostly operating from outside. At least three foreign media organisations declared an unofficial tirade against Hasina.

The scenario is diametrically opposite this time. Foreign media is willy-nilly supporting the ruling dispensation. Jamaat is controlling mainstream Bangladeshi media opinion. They dominate the social and digital media space. Most mainstreams are financed and staffed by them. On top, there is a threat perception. A slight deviation and the journalist may have to face the consequences for helping the “fascist.”

BNP’s withering away

BNP will not complain about lack of democratic freedom. They are now living in the dream of assuming power. On paper, their relationship with Jamaat had soured. But many believe they are hyping up the differences to create an element of perceived competition — when there is none — in the election.

Traditionally, BNP had roughly 30 per cent core vote. In the past, they depended on Jamaat for five per cent more votes to come to power. Probably, they are now more dependent on Jamaat to come to power because their popularity has taken a hit over the last year.

The party activists are accused of rampant extortion and case-commerce, a new tool to blackmail people. They were behind most of the fake cases against the Awami activists. A BNP leader supplied earthmovers for the destruction of the Bangabandhu Museum in February this year.

Organisation has never been BNP’s strength. It is now failing to face Jamaat’s well-oiled machinery. The party’s student-wing nominee came a distant second in the recently concluded Dhaka University student-union election. Jamaat’s student wing, Shibir, has been winning successive elections in public universities by wide margins.

Jamaat’s playing a tactical game

BNP suffers from an ideological crisis, with League on the Left (not left of centre) and Jamaat on the Right. They may win this election, but the margin may be too narrow for their comfort. Their survival in government will depend on Jamaat, which is playing a tactical game.

Islamists have taken over a majority of the key positions in the bureaucracy. The demoralised police force lives on Jamaat’s protection.

They created beneficiary groups. In Bangladeshi reality, police and administration together can swing verdicts by anywhere between 10–20 per cent. Army is divided and toothless.

A de facto Jamaat state

Essentially, the steering is now in Jamaat’s hands and they are pushing things in a direction where they would play the central role, replacing Awami League, in the affairs of a nation that they did not wish to be born. And they are in a hurry to achieve this goal, which will keep Bangladeshi politics unstable.

To read Jamaat’s mind: once in power, they may drop charges against a weaker Awami League and humiliate them for the rest of their lives for the ‘crimes against humanity.’ That is revenge for the humiliation they faced for the Liberation War crimes.

Will Awami League fold up? Don’t bet on it

But the big question is whether Hasina will take it all lying down. In Bangladeshi political history, the League is the toughest Opposition. They have a strong support base among the marginalised and are champions in street fights.

The forced isolation and retribution helped them regain their lost popularity — and more — over the last year. If there were a free and fair election today, League might have surprised its critics. The party has given every signal that it will face the situation.

That might soon convert Bangladeshi politics into a war field. The possibilities are high because Jamaat’s rise to power will force the rest of the political class, including BNP, to rally behind Awami League. In Bangladeshi politics, there is no better antidote to Jamaat than League.

Some in BNP, like freedom fighter, Supreme Court lawyer and party nominee in the 2026 election, Fazlur Rahman, are already alarmed. He referred to the legal process behind the verdict as illegal.

(Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.)