COP29 hyped nuclear energy but it won’t last

The highlight of COP29 was six more states joining the Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy by 2050.

The global nuclear industry finally had a reason to cheer after a lull of more than a decade following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident. The 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29 in short) held in November 2024 in Baku, Azerbaijan highlighted the role of nuclear energy in decarbonising economies and assisting states with net-zero transitions.

The highlight of COP29 was six more states joining the Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy by 2050 — which was launched by 25 states during the COP28 in Dubai in December 2024. But the hype surrounding nuclear energy would not last long. This is because the revival of the global nuclear industry is closely tied to the question of radioactive waste. While the theoretical solution to highly-radioactive nuclear waste — deep geological repositories (DGR) — exists, much will depend on how it translates into reality.

Vexed problem of nuclear waste 

Thousands of tons of nuclear waste is generated during the nuclear fuel cycle — mining and processing, fuel fabrication, use of fuel in the power plant for electricity generation, and spent fuel reprocessing. This waste can be in gaseous, liquid or solid form and is usually categorised into low, intermediate and high levels. While low and intermediate waste comprises a majority of the waste by volume, high-level waste contains most radioactivity.

Being promoted by a number of national nuclear bodies as well as international bodies such as the IAEA, DGRs have often been touted as the solution for storing high-level nuclear waste. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission defines a DGR as ‘(a)n excavated, underground facility that is designed, constructed, and operated for safe and secure permanent disposal of HLW [high-level waste].’

Current status of deep geological repositories

At present, there is a deep geological repository in the United States. Established in 1999, the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) situated in the Chihuahuan Desert, is expected to be operational beyond 2050 with a total waste storage capacity of 6.2 million cubic-feet. But it is only mandated to store transuranic waste; it is not mandated to store high level waste or spent fuel. Operations at this facility have not been accident-free: in 2014, a waste storage drum exploded leading to radiation release in the environment and one of the costliest accidents in the history of the United States. The only legally mandated site in the United States for storing high level spent fuel in Yucca Mountain in Nevada has been stalled for decades now.

Apart from the United States, Germany has experimented with nuclear waste storage (low and intermediate levels) at pre-existing mines like the Asse mine; but the state has encountered stiff opposition from communities around such mines. Germany is currently constructing Konrad mine for storing low to intermediate level waste and searching for a suitable permanent high level waste disposal site.

Finland, which operates just two nuclear plants, is slated to become the first country in the world to commission a permanent geological repository (called Onkalo facility) for high-level nuclear waste, that is, spent fuel from its nuclear plants. Expected to start sometime in 2025/2026, the facility enjoys rare public support, even from people around its vicinity.

In January 2022, the Swedish government approved setting up a permanent geological repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, becoming the second country after Finland to do so; it could take more than a decade to come up. Both the facilities at Finland and Sweden are expected to store the nuclear waste for tens of thousands of years. Other states such as India, Russia, China, France and the UK are at different stages of research and siting a geological repository.

Problems with DGRs

‘Any assessment of the performance and behavior of geological repositories will be beset with uncertainties,’argued MV Ramana, a US-based physicist in a 2018 paper on nuclear waste.

The technology/design being deployed by Finland and Sweden for storing the nuclear waste have been questioned on safety grounds. Specifically, concerns have been raised by the use of copper canisters for corrosion resistance. While the authorities in Finland and Sweden have chosen copper canisters because they corrode very slowly, some scientists have pointed out that it might not be the case. But what the 2014 accident at the WIPP in the US has demonstrated, accidents at DGRs could lead to potentially catastrophic consequences and billions of dollars in cost. Any accident at the DGRs in Finland and Sweden will be of another magnitude because they will store high-level waste.

From hype to revival

Currently, there are no operating DGRs for high-level waste in the world. While Finland and Sweden are building one, questions have been raised about their safety. If participating states were to hold true to the Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy by 2050, their high-level nuclear waste will set to multiply manifold. Only 2 states (Finland and Sweden) have a concrete plan to store high-level waste while the rest of the endorsing states do not. Without a workable and safe solution for nuclear waste, the global nuclear industry will struggle to take off. The road from hype to revival for the nuclear industry will traverse through the vexed problem of radioactive waste.