As Modi meets Trump, the premise and promise of US-India ties 

The Trump-Modi meeting comes amid heightened focus on trade and tariffs under the new administration.

The premise of sound US-India ties under Trump 2.0 is compelling. New Delhi believes PM Modi’s visit to Washington, on invitation of President Trump just a few weeks into his inauguration is reflective of the leaders’ camaraderie and the bipartisan support for the partnership in the United States.

Dr Jaishankar, India’s foreign minister often reminds people that it’s taken many administrations on both sides of the aisle for over two decades to build “a structural soundness in the India-US relationship.” The foreign office in New Delhi is clearly banking on some of the muscle memory from Trump 1.0 to kick in. But pragmatism will outweigh optimism in New Delhi, meaning that it will brace itself for uncertainty despite the strong premise of ties. Therefore, PM Modi’s Washington visit is primed to create new avenues for cooperation, manage expectations and align ecosystems to ensure ties stay the course.

If one were counting on reassurance, the signs are promising but come with caveats.

People are policy

One, in administrations, it’s often argued people are policy. In a Trump administration - this parable holds even more meaning. So outside of banking on PM Modi’s rapport with President Trump, India will be counting on key figures the incoming administration. Indian media has been awash with reports of top appointees like Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz —being friends of India. There is merit to this optimism.

Rubio’s confirmation hearing left no ambiguity on his hawkish stance on China. That he has called out Pakistan on state sponsored terrorism and pushed for India to be on par with allies and Nato partners for technology and military collaboration is consequential. NSA Mike Waltz, who served as the co-chair of the Congressional India Caucus has said US-India ties will "determine whether this is a century of light or a century of darkness” and offered an “Open Door Policy” to advance relations. The numerous high level exchanges between the foreign, defence and security top brass within the run up to the PM’s visit show both sides have hit the ground running.

From the turmoil in West Asia to the turbulence in the Indo-Pacific and ending the Ukraine war— people matter while finding common ground and so do their framing of shared interests and challenges. PM Modi’s visit will attempt to deepen this alignment.

Trump 1.0 identified India as the strong counter to China

Two, the fact is that Trump 1.0 was indeed beneficial to Indian interests. It was Trump’s first presidency’s stance towards China shifted the strategic calculus in the Indo-Pacific. India-US ties deepened in defence, counterterrorism, and regional security. India signed foundational agreements enhancing interoperability between forces. The National Security Strategy, The 2021 Strategic Framework all identified a strong India as key to counterbalance China and a stable Indo-Pacific. The Quad was revived, the Indo-Pacific command realised, US DoD reorganised to look beyond China with dedicated units for Indo-Pacific allies. These efforts were all built upon by the Biden administration including putting technology co-development at the heart of the relationship with the initiative for critical and emerging technologies.

Trump 2.0 has promised continuity in approach, but nobody in the region is naive to believe that it will come without costs. Trump 2.0 use of tariffs to wrestle a better deal out of China is already in play. The push for re-shoring of critical industries to Southeast Asia or India, to secure supply chains could be an opportunity, but will come with a doubling down on partners to reduce reliance on Chinese trade and technology. Yet amidst these expectations of chaos there also is heightened ambiguity over what Trump’s China policy looks like.

Business interests are important to Trump 2.0

Seasoned practitioners like Lisa Curtis who served in the first administration have confirmed that Trump’s outreach to President Xi Jinping even has he threatens China with tariffs and his team talks tough on Taiwan — is a sign that he’s seeking a trade deal with China, not unlike his first term. Business interests will matter just as much as securing the strategic edge. Recent controversies including Trump asking the Supreme Court to drop the ban on TikTok are fanning concerns of a flip flop. If managing China has been a shared challenge for India-US ties, getting a sense of Washington’s agenda with Beijing will be a key goal for PM Modi’s visit.

Looking ahead, PM Modi and his team will be well prepared for tariffs and transactionalism from Trump. India has already showcased readiness to align with Trump’s trade priorities.The recent budget highlighted reductions in customs duties on luxury imports, including premium motorcycles like Harley-Davidson—a point of discord in Trump’s tariff tirade with India in the past. Modi’s meeting with business leaders, including Elon Musk, as India’s moves to eliminate customs duties on lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles would be noted by firms like Tesla.

India’s past attempts at negotiating a limited trade agreement with Washington to address market access concerns will be revived, despite limited success in the last term. Trump wants partners to buy US energy to ward off trade surplus issues, like Japan. India is considering buying more US LNG but on beneficial terms.

On the defence front, speculation of the Trump team pushing India to finalise more defence purchases bringing up the total of arms sales to $25 billion since 2007 is rife.

India’s challenge is to prioritise its asks

The challenge for the PM’s visit will be to prioritise India’s asks, address worries on access to advanced technologies, and convey that more arms sales without stronger commitment on military technology transfers and resolving ongoing supply issues will be difficult. Remember PM Modi’s visit to Washington comes after his visit to France, India’s most reliable defence supplier. Options will be leveraged.

Finally, The Quad Foreign Minister’s meeting on the sidelines Trump’s inauguration in a year when India takes on the group’s Presidency was symbolic. Modi’s visit is an opportunity for India to advocate for continuity in Quad’s strategic approach while resisting demands for alignment that may restrict its autonomy. This may not line up with Trump’s matrix of how business is done. But the PM’s visit will do well to manage those expectations and highlight the utility of the bilateral relationship to shared interests, before it rolls out the red carpet for Trump for the leaders’ summit later in the year.