Will Phase-1 turnout surge makes Bihar’s battle tighter for incumbents?

Bihar elections see a surge in voter turnout

Nearly six in 10 constituencies that voted in the first phase of the Bihar Assembly elections saw turnout rise by more than 8 percentage points from 2020, a Moneycontrol analysis shows, pointing to stronger voter mobilisation that could influence close contests across the state.

Data compiled from 121 Phase-1 seats shows that 59 percent of constituencies recorded turnout gains of at least eight percentage points, with an average rise of 8.4 percentage points. The increase ranged from a minimum of 2.8 points to a maximum of 15.7 points, indicating a broad-based surge rather than a few outliers.

Higher turnout, tighter margins

The surge in participation echoes a pattern seen in 2020, when rising turnout was frequently followed by narrower victory margins. Seat-level comparisons of 2020 outcomes with subsequent changes in turnout suggest that in many constituencies, spikes in participation coincided with shrinking leads or outright losses for incumbents.

For instance, Bhorey, which JD(U) turned in 2020 by just 0.25 percentage points, saw its margin fall by 8.6 points as turnout rose by 1.5 points. Matihani and Bakhri, both decided by less than half a point in 2020, also flipped hands as their margins collapsed by double digits.

The relationship isn’t absolute — some seats moved the other way. Aurai and Teghra, won by the BJP and CPI, respectively, recorded both higher turnout and wider winning margins. Digha, also won by the BJP, posted a 13-point increase in its victory margin despite lower participation.

Even so, the broader distribution points to a clear trend: as more voters turn out, races tighten. Constituencies with smaller 2020 cushions — particularly those won by under five percentage points — appear far more volatile.

First-phase stakes high for JD(U) and BJP

In 2020, 78 constituencies were decided by margins of less than 5 percent, 43 of which voted on November 6. An earlier Moneycontrol analysis found that JD(U) faced the greatest risk among incumbents, as many of its long-held strongholds — seats it had won in three consecutive elections — saw their average victory margin halve to 7.9 percent in 2020, even as the RJD and BJP consolidated their ground.

The latest data suggests that Phase 1 has brought not just higher participation but also greater competitiveness, with renewed voter engagement across all constituencies driving closer margins. If the 2020 pattern repeats, several incumbent-held seats could see photo-finish contests when counting begins.