Flight Freeze: Why India remains hesitant on resuming direct flights to China

Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Vientiane, Laos in July 2024. (AP)

Direct flights between India and China were suspended in 2020 in the wake of Covid pandemic and have not resumed since then. While global air travel has largely recovered, the border skirmish in Eastern Ladakh in May 2020 – where 20 Indian soldiers lost their lives – hindered the ties between the two nations, with the flight services remaining suspended despite high demand for passenger connectivity.

The two nations operated more than 500 monthly direct flights prior to the pandemic. Most of these flights were operated by Chinese airlines, such as Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern. Direct flights between the two countries were also offered by Indian airlines IndiGo and Air India.

While cargo flights between the two countries continue, passenger flight service remains suspended, leading to longer, more expensive journeys through connecting hubs like Hong Kong, Bangkok, and Singapore.

A new starting point

Recently, India and China reached a significant agreement regarding troop disengagement and patrolling along the Line of Actual Control, marking a major breakthrough after more than four years of standoff.

Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri on October 21 had said in Delhi that the agreement was finalised following negotiations over the past several weeks and that it would lead to a resolution of the issues that arose in 2020.

On October 23, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and China President Xi Jinping endorsed the agreement on patrolling and disengagement along the LAC in eastern Ladakh during their bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in Kazan in Russia.

Experts believe that the border pact is likely to pave the way for improved political and trade ties between China and India, potentially leading to the resumption of direct passenger flights to China. However, they have also noted that this may take a while.

China eager to resume flights

According to a June 2024 report by Reuters, China is pressing India to restart direct passenger flights after a four-year hiatus, but New Delhi remains reluctant, citing the border tensions between the two nations.

Quoting two people familiar with the matter, the report stated that several times over the past year or so, China's government and airlines have asked India's civil aviation authorities to re-establish direct air links. China considers this a "big issue", the report quoted one of them as saying.

However, the report further quoted an Indian official as saying that “the relationship cannot move forward unless there is peace and tranquillity on the border”.

Flight resumption discussed

In September this year, India’s Civil Aviation Minister Ram Mohan Naidu Kinjarapu revealed that talks were underway to restore direct passenger flights between India and China.

“As Chairman for the 2nd Asia-Pacific Ministerial Conference on Civil Aviation, I have used this platform to engage with foreign delegations. Today, along with Secretary Shri Vumlunmang Vualnam and other senior officials, I had a courtesy meeting with the Chinese delegation led by Song Zhiyong. We exchanged views on enhancing civil aviation cooperation, specifically on promoting the early resumption of scheduled passenger flights,” Kinjarapu shared on X.

Why is New Delhi reluctant?

India’s reluctance in resuming direct passenger flight service to and from China is primarily due to unresolved national security concerns and the lingering trust deficit following the Galwan Valley skirmish in 2020, which highlighted the volatile nature of the India-China border dispute. Experts are of the view that resuming direct flights could be perceived as a sign of normalization, potentially undermining India's stance on border security.

The Indian security establishment remains cautious, aligning with the broader strategy of reducing dependence on China and safeguarding strategic interests.

Resuming direct flights could benefit both nations economically and diplomatically. However, the stakes appear higher for China, which has yet to see a full rebound in its international travel sector. The potential resumption of air travel would ease logistical and financial burdens for travellers between the two countries, currently forced to rely on connecting flights.