Could a 'united' INDIA bloc have performed better against BJP in Delhi? Here's what MC analysis shows

Could AAP, Congress combine have trumped BJP

In fourteen seats won by the Bharatiya Janata Party in Delhi, Congress and Aam Aadmi Party had higher combined votes, according to a Moneycontrol analysis.

With BJP winning its first mandate in Delhi in 27 years and Indian National Congress failing to open its account for a third consecutive time, speculations are rife if the parties combined could have stopped the March of BJP in the national capital.

While simple arithmetic shows that the INDIA bloc could have wrested 14 more seats from the BJP had they contested the election together, including AAP’s brass such as  Arvind Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia and Saurabh Bhardwaj, the political reality may have been different.

In the case of Arvind Kejriwal, for instance, while Parvesh Verma won the seat with a margin of 4,089 votes, the Congress candidate secured 4,568 votes. Similarly, Saurabh Bhardwaj lost the seat by 3,188 votes but the Congress candidate secured 6,711 votes.

However, analysis of data from the Lok Sabha shows that the vote transfer may not have been that easy.

For instance, analysis of results for Lok Sabha shows that BJP secured 52 of the 70 assembly segments when AAP and Congress contested together in Lok Sabha in 2024.

Moreover, analysis indicates that BJP had a better win record in seats where it was in direct contest with Congress than AAP.

In the constituencies where BJP had a direct competition with Congress it won 71 percent of the vote share, while in seats where it was in direct contest with AAP it won 54 percent share of votes.