China set to build Xinjiang–Tibet rail line cutting through Aksai Chin near LAC: Why it matters for India

File photo of China-Tibet rail line passing by the Kunlun mountains in China's far northwestern Qinghai province. (AFP)

Amid growing concerns over construction of a mega dam on Brahmaputra, there’s another infrastructure project that may pose a geostrategic worry for India. Latest media reports from Beijing suggest that the Xi Jinping administration has decided to commence the work on the critical Xinjian-Tibet railway link that will run close to the Line of Actual Control near Ladakh. The railway link, which will cut through Aksai Chin will connect Hotan in Xinjiang to Tibet’s Capital city Lhasa.

Government-run South China Morning Post says that the Xinjiang–Tibet Railway Company was officially registered with a capital of 95 billion yuan (US $13.2 billion) at the Shanghai Securities News last week. Fully owned by China State Railway Group, the company’s remit includes activities such as real estate development, tourism, catering, accommodation, and international contracting projects.

The planned line will link the existing Lhasa–Shigatse section to a new Hotan–Shigatse route, creating a roughly 2,000 km (1,240-mile) strategic corridor between China’s northwest and southwest. It is one of four planned railways connecting Tibet to other provinces; the others will link the region with Qinghai, Sichuan, and Yunnan. The Qinghai–Tibet line is already operational, while work on the other two continues.

Research by Hubei-based Huayuan Securities notes that the project is part of a broader vision to establish a 5,000 km high-altitude rail network centred on Lhasa by 2035. The registered capital covers only the initial funding; for comparison, the 1,800 km Sichuan–Tibet Railway had an estimated cost of 320 billion yuan.

Why it matters for India?

Strategically, sections of the route will run close to the China–India Line of Actual Control, an underdeveloped frontier zone with defence significance. The line will average over 4,500 metres in elevation and traverse the Kunlun, Karakoram, Kailash, and Himalayan ranges, cutting through glaciers, frozen rivers, and permafrost.

Any infrastructural development in this zone poses a security risk for India. The two nuclear-armed nations saw hostilities in 2020 after the Galwan showdown. Since then, the two Asian powers have worked towards normalisation  of bilateral ties.

The challenges for engineers

On the Tibetan Plateau, winter temperatures can plunge to –40 °C (–40 °F), and oxygen levels are less than half those found in inland China. These extreme conditions will challenge engineers with faster machinery wear, high transport costs, and strict environmental protection requirements.

The 20 years wait

Plans for the Xinjiang–Tibet route date back to 2008, when it was included in the revised Medium and Long-Term Railway Network Plan approved by the National Development and Reform Commission. Key progress was made in May 2022 with the launch of survey and design tenders for the Hotan–Shigatse stretch. In April, transport ministry officials confirmed that construction is expected to commence within this year.