Bihar election survey: Advantage NDA, but unemployment and migration dominate voter mood

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. (File: PTI)

With the Bihar Assembly elections less than a month away, a new survey predicts the likelihood of a close contest between the ruling NDA and the Opposition's Mahagathbandhan alliance. The findings also reveal how unemployment, migration, and welfare delivery are shaping voter sentiment across the state.

According to the State Vibe survey, conducted in September, unemployment and migration top the list of voter concerns, with 38.4% of respondents citing it as their primary issue. Education and health, particularly among women, also emerged as priorities.

Meanwhile, nearly a third of Muslim respondents (33.4%) flagged fears of “vote chori” as a major issue, suggesting that the Opposition, particularly Congress leader Rahul Gandhi's, campaign against the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls may have had some impact on voters.

Even battleground

The survey places the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan locked in a close contest, with NDA support at 34.8% and the RJD-led bloc at 34.9%, reflecting the importance that even marginal swings could have on the final outcome.

The survey suggests that welfare schemes, especially the Mahila Rozgar Yojana recently implemented by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, has the potential to switch votes from Jan Suraaj and the Mahagathbandhan.

The survey findings further suggest that Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj is unlikely to play kingmaker and is instead viewed primarily as a vote-cutter, with 56.3% of respondents describing it that way. Only 8.4% saw Kishor as a potential chief ministerial face. However, his campaign could disrupt margins in multiple seats, particularly in triangular contests.

Campaigns and Controversies

On the campaign front, RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav's ongoing yatra has energised RJD workers (43.8%), with the enthusiasm particularly high among Yadav respondents (76.7%), the survey notes.

Another major controversy over the circulation of a purported Al-video featuring Prime Minister Narendra Modi's mother also showed little signs of impact, with nearly half of voters (49.8%) dismissing it as electorally insignificant.

The survey findings about the internal disputes of the Lalu Prasad Yadav family, which have repeatedly spilled into the public domain in recent months revealed mixed results. Nearly half of respondents (45.8%) said the feud would have no electoral impact with 70.6% of Yadavs expressing confidence it would not affect the party. On the other hand, 46.6% of upper-caste Hindus saw a potential fallout with a negative effect.

Voter decisiveness

The survey shows that 56.3% of respondents have already made up their minds, while 43.7% remain undecided. Urban voters are more certain (66.9%) than their rural counterparts (51.8%). Interestingly, younger voters appear more decisive than older ones, suggesting that outreach to first-time and youth voters could prove critical.

Caste-based loyalties continue to shape the electoral landscape in Bihar. While Yadavs and Muslims remain RJD’s traditional base, the BJP-JD(U) combine retains an edge among upper castes and segments of the EBCs (Extremely Backward Classes).

With the caste census confirming EBCs as the single largest group—36% of Bihar’s population—their votes are expected to play a crucial role.

Elections in Bihar are scheduled to be held in November this year with the announcement of the election schedule expected soon. The term of the current Assembly ends on November 22.