Bihar Election 2025: The Owaisi factor and the battle for Bihar's Muslim vote

Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM is eying a comeback in Bihar in the coming elections. (File: PTI)

By - Khalid Akhter

As election campaigning intensifies across Bihar, political parties are going all out with massive rallies and bold promises in their bid to secure traditional vote banks. In Bihar, where caste and community identities invariably shape each electoral battle, the Muslim vote has once again emerged as a decisive factor that could tilt the scales.

Numbers that matter

Muslims make up 17.7% of Bihar's electorate, according to the 2023 caste census. Their influence is not uniform but geographically concentrated — particularly in the Seemanchal region (Kishanganj, Katihar, Purnia, Araria), where Muslims form nearly 47% of the population.

Out of Bihar's 243 Assembly seats, around 40 constituencies have over 25% Muslim voters, and another 20 have between 20% and 25%. In effect, Muslims hold decisive sway in nearly a quarter of all Assembly seats (roughly 60) including pockets where their share crosses 70%, such as Amour and Kochadhaman.

The Muslim vote over the years

Historically, Muslim voters have gravitated towards the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, while the JD(U) has struggled to win their trust whenever allied with the BJP.

However, two exceptions stand out:

2014 Lok Sabha elections: When Nitish Kumar broke ties with the BJP, JD(U) received over 20% of Muslim votes, seen as a reward for opposing the “Modi wave.”

2015 Assembly elections: As part of the Grand Alliance, JD(U) again secured around 19% of the Muslim vote.

In contrast, when aligned with the BJP, JD(U)'s share has dipped sharply. In the 2020 Assembly elections, about 62% of Muslims voted for the Mahagathbandhan, while only 14% supported the NDA. AIMIM took a small but noticeable 3%, mainly from the Seemanchal belt.

The pattern persisted in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, when nearly 68% of Muslim votes went to the opposition alliance, with just 17% to the NDA.

The Owaisi factor in Seemanchal

The 2020 elections marked a new phase in Bihar’s politics when Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM made inroads, winning five seats — all from Muslim-dominated Seemanchal. Owaisi's entry into Bihar's politics disrupted the Mahagathbandhan's monopoly over Muslim votes — a setback that the alliance's constituent parties had to bear in the 2020 assembly elections. However, four of 5 AIMIM MLAs later defected to the RJD.

Now, Owaisi is back with a new experiment — an alliance with Bhim Army chief Chandrashekhar Azad and Swami Prasad Maurya, aiming to build a Muslim-Dalit-Backward unity plank. While the alliance may be more symbolic than strategic, it could still unsettle the arithmetic in eastern Bihar if it draws even a fraction of the Muslim vote away from the RJD-Congress combine.

Consolidation or split?

On the ground, many Muslim voters express anxiety over the possibility of a BJP-led government in Bihar if Nitish Kumar exits due to health concerns. This fear could push Muslim voters toward greater consolidation behind the Mahagathbandhan rather than experimentation with smaller parties.

In a state where elections are often decided by slim margins, even a 2–3% swing in Muslim votes could determine the outcome in dozens of constituencies, especially in Seemanchal and parts of central Bihar.

For Tejashwi Yadav, retaining the Muslim-Yadav (MY) base is not just crucial. It is the foundation of his path to the chief minister’s chair.

(The author is a journalist with nearly two decades of experience and currently serves as an Output Editor at CVoter News Services. The views expressed are personal.)