Bihar Caste Census: Can social justice be the big issue of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections?

The Congress-led state governments are acting swiftly on the caste survey issue.

The events that have unfolded during the last few weeks makes me believe that social justice may become an important issue for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. While at this moment it is not clear how big it could become closer to the polls as other issues will also come into play, it is certain that social justice for people belonging to the Other Backward Classes (OBC) will be an issue which opposition parties would like to use for voter mobilisation. Let me try to explain why I think so.

The numbers for different castes released by the Bihar government, based on the recent caste survey/census, indicate a higher proportion of OBC (63 percent) compared to what had been speculated for a very long time (55 percent). This gives the opposition a reason to argue more firmly for an all-India caste census.

Consequently, the opposition parties might like to take the message to the people about denial of justice to those belonging to the OBC castes in the form of a full package.

Opposition’s Justice Denial Slogan

First, the OBCs were denied the benefit of reservation for a very long time. It was only introduced in the early 1990s after the implementation of the Mandal commission report. Though implemented, it was not in true spirit as a new clause of creamy layer was introduced, which is not the case of provision of reservation for the SCs and STs.

Second, while the provision of reservation for SCs and STs were introduced in proportion to their share in the population, for OBCs it is almost less than half of their share in population. Finally, when the bill for reservation of seats for women in Parliament and state assemblies was being passed in Parliament, the government (BJP) did not agree to the demand by the opposition parties including the Congress for introducing provision of reserving seats for OBC women within the prescribed 33 percent quota.

All this has meant the opposition parties getting a full package of narratives, which amount to charging the present BJP-led government of being unsympathetic to OBCs. This package includes all the three issues: Denial of justice to the OBCs for a long time, half-hearted effort to give social justice by not giving reservation in proportion to their share in population, and not agreeing to giving benefits of women’s reservation to OBC women.

It seems an effective tool has come into the hands of the opposition parties: JD(U) and RJD being on the forefront. The question remains how effectively the regional parties can use this tool.

Messaging is very important in politics. In the recent past, we have seen how effective the BJP machinery was in sending out messages to the electorate at large. If opposition parties are able to convey the message of historic injustice to the OBCs which “continues” even today through BJP’s reluctance for a nationwide caste-based census and not agreeing to giving quota to the OBC women in the women’s reservation, this could appeal to a section of OBC voters. But the question remains: Can opposition parties execute this plan?

Expect A Strong BJP Counter

One should not forget that BJP is also trying hard to send out a message that it cares for OBCs more than regional parties. BJP was quick enough to cite the numbers of their OBC MPs in the current Parliament, OBC MLAs across states, and OBC ministers in the Union cabinet. Through this, BJP was conveying the sizeable representation to OBC castes in the party and that the government has not ignored them.

Let’s not forget that in order to counter the Opposition demand for representation in proportion to the share in population by citing number of OBC’s, Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a recent rally tried to build a counter narrative that it is the poor who are numerically large, so if anyone needs to be given representation it is the poor as they are numerically large. One should also not forget that by championing the cause of one caste or group of castes, a party tends to ignore other castes, resulting in counter-mobilisation.

People are also asking if this is the moment of Mandal 2.0? One has moved close to that moment but is not exactly there yet. Even though the number of OBCs in Bihar has come out to be much higher compared to what was estimated earlier, this can’t unite the OBCs in a similar manner as it did when for the first time Mandal commission was being implemented.

There are already cracks within the umbrella OBC group: between the upper and the lower OBCs and BJP has reaped political benefits from that. Reuniting them just on the issue of an all-India caste census or on their numbers being higher than estimated may not be enough. A divided OBC can’t be an effective target for political mobilisation by the opposition parties.

Sanjay Kumar is a Professor at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). He is also a Political Analyst. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.