5 factors weighing on BJP as it eyes dominance in Bihar

Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently lauded Chief Minister Nitish Kumar for transforming Bihar’s education system, which he alleged was left 'devastated and neglected' during the RJD-Congress rule

Bihar will go to polls in two phases on November 6 and 11, setting the stage for a fierce political showdown between the BJP-JD(U)-led NDA and the Mahagathbandhan of RJD and Congress. Prashant Kishor's newly-formed outfit Jan Suraaj is expected to further queer the political pitch, promising some fireworks post-Diwali in the final assembly election of the year.

The counting of votes will be held on November 14.

The NDA in Bihar comprises five parties: the BJP, the Janata Dal (United), the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), the Hindustani Awam Morcha, and the Rashtriya Lok Morcha.

The 2020 Assembly election in the state was a close contest between the NDA and the Mahagatbandhan, where the RJD won 75 seats while the BJP 74. This time also it may not be a smooth path for the NDA.

Tough balancing act

The NDA has not yet finalised seat-sharing talks with its allies with last-minute negotiations under way. Fighting an anti-incumbency wave, 80 MLAs, including 22 ministers, are going into the coming elections.

The BJP faces a tough balancing act as it seeks more seats within the NDA while battling strong anti-incumbency against its MLAs.

Despite hopes that a slew of welfare schemes launched by the Nitish Kumar-led government will offset voter fatigue, the party is weighing a Gujarat-style candidate overhaul to project fresh and clean faces.

Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan is leading seat-sharing talks with the JD(U), but pressure is high since the BJP aims to contest around 100 constituencies.

Meanwhile, its smaller allies-Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) and Jitan Ram Manjhi's Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) are no longer content to play supporting roles. They are reportedly demanding a larger share, threatening to upend the delicate balance that has kept the NDA afloat.

Chirag Paswan’s ambitions

Union Minister and LJP (Ram Vilas) chief Chirag Paswan has been reportedly bargaining hard to clinch a significant number of seats after his party's 5/5 show in Bihar in the Lok Sabha election last year. According to a report by NDTV, Paswan has demanded 40 seats while the BJP has offered him 25. His party contested alone in 2020, winning just one seat.

Paswan, who is a staunch supporter of PM Modi, has not publicly expressed his wish to be the Bihar CM. However, with campaigns such as 'Bihar first, Bihari first' and public outreach programmes such Chirag ka Chaupal, he has been projecting himself not just as an NDA member, but as a formidable political force on his own. He has also been openly critical of Nitish Kumar, signalling that he is not willing to be just another player within the NDA. In order to manage Paswan’s ambitions, the BJP may find itself in a tough spot to not offend the JDU and other allies in the NDA.

High dependence on Nitish Kumar

Prime Minister Narendra Modi often uses the term “double engine” government for Bihar. However, in the last two decades BJP, the metaphor rings with an irony. In Bihar, BJP has always relied on the carriage hitched to the unpredictable engine of Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United).

Kumar, who is eyeing his fifth consecutive term in office, dumped the BJP twice in the past - first in 2014 ahead of the Lok Sabha elections then and again in 2022 when he accused the saffron party of trying to break his JD(U). During his second stint with the opposition parties, Nitish had played a key role in forming the INDIA bloc to challenge the BJP.

Moreover, Nitish, with his 12 JD(U) MPs, is also a key part of the NDA government at the Centre since BJP fell short of a majority in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The party also lacks a formidable face in Bihar, which gives Nitish an edge in the state.

With no state leader leading the charge, the BJP continues to rely heavily on PM Narendra Modi’s popularity and a spate of infrastructure projects, including new airports and greenfield expressways, to create a favourable sentiment.

Prashant Kishor’s entry

Jan Suraaj leader Prashant Kishor is already in full campaign mode for the election and appears confident of upstaging the JD(U)-BJP combine in his home state. He has been claiming that the JD(U) tally will fall below 25 seats. His call for focus on education, livelihood and policy reforms may appeal to voters who are yearning for change.

It is also being said that Bihar 2025 will be another Delhi 2015 when people in the national capital voted for change making Arvind Kejriwal the Chief Minister.

While the chances of Kishor denting the prospects of the two formidable alliances appear slim at this stage, he may emerge as a vote splitter - a prospect that can affect the JD(U)-BJP coalition.

The Tejashwi-Lalu challenge

The Yadav factor will always weigh heavily on BJP, a party still seen as an outsider in the Bihar political landscape. In the 2020 election, the Tejashwi Yadav-led RJD emerged as the single largest party with 75 seats - one higher than BJP's tally of 74.

In 2025 too, Tejashwi Yadav stands out as the BJP’s foremost challenger as he seeks to leverage the political capital of his father, Lalu Prasad Yadav, and the steadfast support of the Yadav-Muslim voter base.

His aggressive campaigning — such as the “vote theft” narrative and the Voter Adhikar Yatra — is helping rally voters who feel sidelined under long NDA rule. Opinion polls suggest that while NDA may have an edge in the polls, Tejashwi tops the list of preferred CMs among many respondents — reflecting his resonance with voters.