Snow-less in Kashmir, Himachal | Is India experiencing a snow drought, and what are the potential consequences of this phenomenon?

File image of snow in the upper reaches of mountains in Kashmir. This year, there's little to no snowfall in the region, thanks to the absence of strong western disturbances, gradual increase in temperatures in the region attributed to climate change, and possibly even the ongoing El Niño event in the eastern Pacific Ocean. (Photo credit: Iqaan via Wikimedia Commons)

To usher in 2024, Sandhya Singh, a 45-year-old homemaker, eagerly organised a family trip to Gulmarg in Jammu and Kashmir, anticipating a respite from the heat and pollution of Mumbai. However, her idyllic vision of snow-covered landscapes was met with a surprising absence of the familiar winter wonderland. “It was cold but snowless, and very disappointing,” she says.

Gulmarg is not an isolated case. The upper reaches of J&K, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh have witnessed little to no snowfall this winter. As per the India Meteorological Department (IMD), a crucial factor for it is the notable absence of strong western disturbances. Traditionally, December and January mark the presence of at least 1-2 strong western disturbances, directly linked to snowfall during winter months.

“Additionally, there’s been a gradual increase in temperatures in the region, attributed to climate change. The ongoing El Niño event in the eastern Pacific Ocean could also be an additional factor contributing to this year’s unusual weather patterns,” says Karnesh Singh, who is researching the impact of climate change on glaciers in the Himalayan region.

It puts forth the question: Is India in the midst of a snow drought, and can we anticipate an increasing occurrence of this phenomenon in the years ahead?

Numbers add up

Snow droughts are periods characterised by significantly below-average snowfall or a lack of snow accumulation over an extended period, particularly in regions where snow is a regular and expected part of the seasonal climate.

They are becoming increasingly prevalent globally. One notable instance of snow drought occurred in the Sierra Nevada in 2014-15, causing widespread repercussions such as water supply disruptions and losses of $2.7 billion in the agriculture sector alone. Similarly, the Italian Alps faced a critical snow drought in the early 2020s. The March 2022 snow water equivalent (SWE) anomaly reached a century-low, contributing to critical hydrological challenges in the Po and Adige rivers, leading to the worst-recorded hydrological drought in the summer of 2022.

File image from Bashisht, Himachal Pradesh. A snow drought could disrupt water supply and reduce soil moisture levels which in turn could adversely affect crops and agricultural yields. (Photo by mehar123 via Wikimedia Commons 3.0)

These events are not isolated but part of escalating patterns. Studies reveal an 8.4 percent decline per decade in Alpine snow cover between 1971 and 2019, with recent research highlighting a 36-day reduction in snow cover duration compared with the long-term average – an “unprecedented” decline over the past 600 years.

Another study exposes a concerning trend in the northern hemisphere, with declining snowpacks in 82 of 169 river basins crucial for winter water storage. Published in January 2024, it additionally emphasises a non-linear relationship between snow and global temperature, raising concerns about widespread snow loss with continued warming.

For context, on approximately one-third of the days in 2023, the average global temperature exceeded pre-industrial levels by at least 1.5°C. The Copernicus Climate Change Service of the European Union officially designated 2023 as the warmest year on record.

India connection

What’s worse is that the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, home to approximately 54,000 glaciers, is experiencing accelerated warming, with a rate of 0.2°C per decade over the last 50 years, according to the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development. There’s been a 1-3 percent decrease in SWE in the Ganga and Indus River basins over the past 40 years. The HKH region had minimal snowfall in 2023, labelled by some experts as a “no snow year” and attributed to the absence of intense western disturbances.

“These glaciers are vital sources for mountain springs, rivulets, and major rivers like the Indus and the Ganga, sustaining life and livelihoods for millions downstream. The decline in snow, observed in 2023, raised concerns about food and water security for the region's population,” says Tanvi Karnik, who is studying freshwater systems in the Himalayan region. In 2024, too, apprehensions about agricultural and horticultural yields have already surfaced in states and Union Territories such as Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand.

The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, home to approximately 54,000 glaciers, is experiencing accelerated warming. (Image via Wikimedia Commons)

Deep impact

Snow droughts have far-reaching effects. Snowpack, acting as a natural reservoir, stores water during colder months and gradually releases it during the warmer season, ensuring a steady flow into rivers and streams. When snow droughts occur, this natural water storage is compromised, resulting in decreased water availability during crucial times. Images depicting low water levels in Kashmir’s Jhelum river have already circulated widely on social media, heightening concerns about an impending water-scarce in the region in summer.

Reduced snowmelt also impacts soil moisture levels, affecting crop growth and yields. “Over time, it necessitates adaptations in agricultural practices in snow-dependent regions such as adjustments in cropping schedules or the adoption of more drought-resistant crops,” says Karnik.

Furthermore, ecosystems that depend on regular snow cover for essential ecological processes encounter disruptions. “Species of plants and animals adapted to seasonal snow patterns may face challenges in survival and reproduction in the changed environment, while others might extend into new areas,” says Singh. There’s already research that highlights a significant increase in vegetation at higher altitudes in the Himalayas, including the iconic Everest region, due to a decline in snow and a rise in temperatures.

Additionally, tourism experiences adverse effects. For instance, 70-75 percent bookings for the month of January in Gulmarg have either been cancelled or deferred by the intended tourists due to a lack of snow. This alters the region's economic landscape.

In the end, the rising frequency of these events underscores the pressing need for a comprehensive understanding, proactive mitigation strategies, and adaptive measures to navigate the ever-changing dynamics of snowfall patterns. Only that can ensure a sustainable and resilient future for regions affected by snow droughts.