How climate change is changing the food we eat in India: prices, nutrition, taste, seasonality

An aerial view of submerged crop fields in Nanded, Maharashtra. (Photo Credit: Ministry of Home Affairs)

For Sapna Mathur, an interior designer living in Jodhpur, summer means indulging in the local delicacy ker-sangri. “The ker is a desert berry and sangri is the fruit of the Khejri tree. The ker-sangri recipe combines the two, and is typically eaten in the hot months,” she says. This year, unseasonal rains pushed the staple dish off menus.

As per the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Rajasthan’s western districts recorded 39.4mm rainfall between March and May (185 percent above normal). Temperatures in March were 3°C below normal. It affected the growth of the Khejri tree and the berry, which typically thrive in dry and arid weather. “Shergarh, a village near Jodhpur, has around 15,000 Khejri trees. None bore fruit. It has impacted supply and driven up prices, so we didn’t offer the dish,” says Samar Singh, who owns the Singh Dhaba in the area.

Since the start of the 21st century, there have been three major global food price hikes - in 2007-08, 2010-11 and 2021-22. There are indications that 2023, too, could follow this trend. As per this month’s World Bank’s Food Security Update, between January and April, inflation levels were greater than 5 percent in 64.7 percent of low-income countries, 83.7 percent of lower-middle-income countries, and 89 percent of upper-middle-income countries, with many experiencing double-digit inflation.

In India, inflation is low at the moment. The Union Ministry of Finance, however, has warned that food prices will rise in 2023 due to various reasons: extreme weather events and the looming El Nino being the prime ones to impact harvests. Already, ground frost and a cold wave in January has affected the mustard crop in Rajasthan. Unseasonal rain between March and May has delayed the harvest of wheat in Punjab and Haryana and hit ginger supply in Lucknow. Hailstorms in Himachal Pradesh damaged wheat and barley crops, and fruit trees. A state agriculture department report pegged the loss at ₹20 crore.

Deep impact

With global warming making India particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events, climate change is expected to continue to impact the way we produce and consume food. “It is expected to adversely affect crop yields; they may decline from 2 percent to about 40 percent. Some crops, vegetables and fruits are more susceptible than others, though the variation of susceptibility depends on their genetic quality and agro-ecological needs,” says Anjani Kumar, senior research fellow, International Food Policy Research Institute-South Asia.

Rain-fed or dryland crops may be impacted the most due to longer dry spells with erratic/uncertain rainfall or extreme high rainfall events that lead to frequent floods. “This includes semi-arid staples such as sorghum/jowar, ragi, bajra, oilseeds and vegetables. It may result in a reduction in yield/quantity per hectare or even crop failure. There might also be greater probability of pest infestation due to an increase in overall temperature (both daily maximum and minimum). At higher temperatures, pest infection/disease types and rates have a potential to drastically increase,” says Shrinivas Badiger, PhD fellow at the Centre for Environment and Development, Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment.

Climate change can affect groundwater-irrigated crops in areas where groundwater levels are depleting. “Increases in temperature will also have a greater demand on the quantity of water required for meeting evapotranspiration requirements of the crop. If not met, it will affect the yield even in irrigated areas,” says Badiger.

It could reduce the nutritive value of foods we consume. Elevated levels of carbon dioxide make vegetables like lettuce and tomatoes sweeter and tastier, and even boost yields, but they lose out on some 10 percent to 20 percent of the protein, nitrate, magnesium, iron and zinc. Another study shows that plants may lose about 8 percent of their mineral content in carbon-rich environs. It is akin to trading a kale salad for a bowl of iceberg lettuce.

Decline in agricultural production and disruption in the food supply chain due to climate change could have more severe effects in the long run. As per the Global Food Policy Report 2022 by the International Food Policy Research Institute (Ifpri), it may push 17 million people in India towards hunger by 2030, the highest among all countries.

Adapt and modify

The government of India is already adding climate adaptation measures into existing and new development programmes. It has launched the National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture to promote conservation and sustainable use of scarce natural resources through appropriate location-specific measures, and ensure that demand for food grains is met in the country.

In 2021, Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched 35 crop varieties developed by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research that are climate-resilient and address malnutrition. It included a drought-tolerant variety of chickpea, early maturing variety of soybean, disease-resistant varieties of rice, and biofortified varieties of wheat, pearl millet, maize and chickpea, quinoa, buckwheat, winged bean and fava beans. The IMD issues a weekly weather advisory under the Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa (GKMS) scheme. It gathers and organizes climate/weather, soil and crop information and combines it with weather forecasts to help farmers make decisions that enhance crop production and ensure food security.

Farmers can adapt to the changing environment. “They can diversify crops/livestock, switch to the more resilient varieties of seeds and change the agronomic practices according to the evolving climate patterns,” says Kumar. Consumers too can help by reducing food wastage, which has a huge environmental impact. Every year, nearly 931 million tonnes of food is wasted, with 8-10 percent of global carbon emissions linked to unconsumed produce.

It also drives up demand and prices. “I do not foresee any food crops disappearing from our current Indian basket in the next 20-30 years. Prices of certain food crops, including fruits and vegetables, however, will increase, due to greater investments required to grow them. It may shift the dietary composition among marginal communities,” says Badiger.