Explainer: Why wildfires are on the rise in India, and their impact

Climate change has been a key factor in increasing the risk and extent of wildfires. (Photo credit: Balurbala via Wikimedia Commons)

Himachal Pradesh felt the heat this winter, not because of lack of snowfall, but due to an unprecedented surge in wildfires. From October 2023 to January 2024, the Forest Survey of India (FSI), which operates under the ministry of environment, forest and climate change, issued a staggering 2,050 fire alerts – a sevenfold rise compared to previous winter. Wildfires were reported from Kullu, Manali, Shimla and Kinnaur.

These wildfires are a worrying trend. Over the past six years, the state of Uttarakhand has witnessed a threefold increase in the area scorched by wildfires. What’s worsened matters is the repeated occurrence of winter wildfires - which occurred outside of the state’s usual fire season of February 15 to June 15.

Also read: Himachal Pradesh likely to witness heavy snowfall from January 30

Across India, there were 14,689 VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite; basically, satellite observations) fire alerts between August 2022 and August 2023. This was unusually high compared to data going back to 2012, as per the World Resources Institute. From 2001 to 2022, 3.59 lakh hectares of forests were ravaged by fire. And in 2008 alone, fire devoured 3,000 hectares, a stark 3.5 percent of all tree cover lost.

But what’s driving this surge? Let’s find out.

Climate change, land-use changes, El Niño effect: it all adds up

As per data from FSI’s State of Forest 2021 report, India’s total forest cover grew by 0.48 percent between 2013 and 2021. Forest fires, detected by satellites, however, skyrocketed by 186 percent in the same period. Nearly 36 percent of the country’s forests are fire-prone, as per a 2019 analysis done by the FSI, with some facing extreme vulnerability.

Experts are struggling to understand the reasons behind this surge in wildfires. Climate change, with its warming grip, is a prime suspect. Hotter temperatures parch the land, creating conditions that are conducive for wildfires. They, in turn, also increase emissions, further warming the planet. El Niño, a periodic climate phenomenon, adds fuel to the flames. During the 2015-16 El Niño, Southeast Asian and Latin American rainforests lost ten times more tree cover due to fires. A new El Niño, brewing since June 2023, promises similar challenges.

The United Nations Environmental Programme has warned that climate change and land-use changes are fanning wildfires, even in previously immune regions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), too, has noted that rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns, coupled with intense land use, are fuelling the spread and intensity in Asian forest fires.

In India, the culprit often also wears a human face. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) mostly classifies forest fires as ‘anthropogenic hazards’ - largely caused by intentional actions like agricultural burning, negligence, or even sabotage. The 2019 Bandipur fire is an example of this chilling reality.

Unfortunately, the situation is only expected to worsen. A 2023 study from the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT Delhi) paints a grim picture for the future of Indian forests. By the end of the century, central and south India, as well as the Himalayas, are predicted to see a significant rise in fire weather danger, fuelled by relentlessly rising temperatures.

“Atmospheric temperatures are on an upward spiral, and this trend is only going to intensify,” the IIT Delhi study warns. “As temperatures soar, the danger of fire weather will engulf many Indian forests.” Not only will these regions experience more intense fires, but their fire seasons will also lengthen by 12-61 days.

Effect of forest fires

Forest fires scorch and destroy vast swathes of forests, reducing vital habitat for numerous plant and animal species. This can lead to displacement, starvation, and even extinction, particularly for endemic species or those with limited range. They also cause population imbalances, impacting predator-prey dynamics and affecting pollinator species crucial for plant reproduction.

Burnt landscapes take years, sometimes decades, to recover. Soil erosion is another consequence, as exposed slopes lose their protective vegetation cover, leading to sedimentation in rivers and disruption of aquatic ecosystems. They also impact the livelihoods of forest-dependent communities.

Wildfires produce large amounts of smoke and pollutants, impacting air quality. A 2023 study by researchers from the Hemwati Nandan Bahuguna Garhwal University found that sulphur dioxide (SO2) levels in the Srinagar-Garhwal valley are steadily rising. The biggest cause: forest fires.

Forests also act as carbon sinks, storing significant amounts of carbon dioxide. Wildfires release this stored carbon back into the atmosphere, contributing to global warming and further intensifying the fire-climate feedback loop. This is a major challenge to India’s climate goals. The country has committed in its NDC, under the Paris Agreement, to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5-3.0 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent through additional forest and tree cover by 2030.

To unravel this complex web of causes, more research is needed in the 15 fire-prone states, including Uttarakhand. Employing technology, involving local communities, scaling early warning systems, and disaster management planning too could help tackle this growing challenge.

Understanding the driving forces behind this early wildfire season and surge in forest fires in general is crucial to preventing future infernos and protecting vital forests.