The US and India will likely come to an agreement on tariffs soon and the situation should 'de-escalate' in the next few weeks, veteran emerging markets investor Mark Mobius said on September 3.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Mobius said that US President Trump is 'taking out his frustration' on India as there hasn't been any significant de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war. "His hope is going to be shattered because obviously India doesn’t want to give up its imports of oil from Russia," he added.
Mobius said Prime Minister Modi's recent visit to China for the SCO Summit is expected to push Trump further towards an agreement, given that New Delhi is an important partner for Washington. The SCO visit saw PM Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping discuss various aspects of bilateral relation in a sign of thaw after recent years of disengagement. The Prime Minister also held bilateral talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the sidelines of the summit.
The veteran investor said the 50 percent tariff on Indian exports to US will impact more labour-intensive sectors in India than the so-called elite segments. "Big sectors that will be hit are high labour-intensive sectors, like jewellery, gems, garments and more. Unfortunately, that will hit a lot of workers than elite jobs in India. So hopefully the government can do something to elevate this difficulty," Mobius said.
Mobius cited that pharmaceuticals and electronics exports to US are exempted from Trump's latest tariffs. "Impact on India from a GDP point of view is maybe half a percent, or one percent at most. When you look at the big picture, there won’t be that big an impact in terms of growth in India, in terms of health of the Indian market," he added.
Also Read: Why Trump’s tariff fight is heading to the Supreme Court and what it means for presidential power
"In my view, US deficits will reduce & US dollar will rise, technology will drive growth, led by AI automation, & chip manufacturing," Mobius added.
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