Tradition to tariffs: How India’s gold import tripled ahead of wedding season, defying record prices

In October, gold imports registered a growth of 199.2 percent to $14.7 billion against $4.9 billion in the year-ago period

India’s gold imports surged nearly 200 percent during October on the back of months of uncertainty from Trump tariffs, and a strong wedding-season demand despite near-record prices.

During October, gold imports saw a growth of 199.2 percent to $14.7 billion against $4.9 billion a year ago, though sequentially the rise was relatively lower yet elevated at nearly 53 percent.

Experts told Moneycontrol that economic uncertainties owing to a steep 50 percent levy by US pushed investors toward safe havens like gold and silver. The GST relief announced in September likely boosted household spending just as the festive and wedding seasons rolled in, thus lifting demand.

Riya Singh, Research Analyst, Commodities and Currency, Emkay Global Financial Services said the gold imports are higher as the demand has rebounded with the onset of the wedding season.

“Inventory levels are high, and if you speak to local jewellers, you will hear that traction has been stronger for lower-carat gold and silver. Jewellery demand for lower carat is clearly visible. Demand for gold jumped once the festive season started. This time, unlike last year, there is an additional layer of uncertainty-driven demand,” added said the Emkay analyst.

Silver imports too rose sixfold to $2.72 billion last month.

Value versus Volume

In quantity terms, gold imports rose to 165 tonnes in October from 60.63 tonnes during the same month last year.

The monthly average of the first seven months of FY26 have seen gold import rise by only 2.3 percent in quantity terms, while the value of imports has jumped 21.4 percent, indicating that the market is paying significantly more for almost the same amount of the yellow metal. Global prices have climbed nearly 50 percent during this period, said Kirit Bhansali, Chairman, GJEPC.

October also coincided with Dhanteras and Diwali festivities, traditionally the strongest period for gold buying in India. This has been followed almost immediately by the wedding season, which significantly boosted jewellery demand across the country, Bhansali added.

The surge is notable as India’s gems and jewellery exports fell 29.5 percent in October this year, indicating that most of the imported gold and silver is feeding domestic demand rather than exports.

Despite high demand in October, the overall physical import of gold during April-October 2025 has not risen significantly.

“Instead, the surge in inbound shipments in value terms is primarily reflective of the global price rally, which inflated the import bill even without a proportional rise in the volume of gold entering the country,” Bhansali said.

GST and Safe Haven

Bhansali added that despite record prices, the domestic demand surged because of lower GST rates on many items, as it likely increased disposable income for households.

Part of this extra liquidity was channelled toward gold purchases, seen as a culturally important asset as well as a safe-haven investment during uncertainty.

When international gold prices see a sharp uptick, many buyers perceive it as an opportune moment to accumulate gold, anticipating that the prices may continue to rise further.

This trend is driven less by traditional consumption motives such as jewellery for festivals or weddings and more by investment-oriented strategies where gold is seen as a hedge against inflation and market fluctuations.

Emkay’s Riya Singh said the Trump’s tariffs triggered a foreign investor outflow, thus putting pressure on the rupee. As uncertainty increased, global investors shifted to safe-haven assets like gold and silver, which also reflected in stronger demand for exchange-traded funds (ETF).

ETFs are investment funds that trade like stocks and allow investors to hold assets like gold without holding them physically.

However, a continued rise in gold imports cause some concerns, as it increases the overall import bill and widens the trade deficit, which jumped to $41.68 billion in October from $32.15 billion in September.

The Emkay analyst said she expects a moderation in demand from mid-January as the peak wedding season begins to taper off.