Motilal Oswal's research report on MRPL
MRPL reported a beat on our EBITDA and PAT estimates with the company posting a GRM of USD3.88/bbl in 3QFY23. Refining throughput was at 4.48mmt (v/s our est. of 3.93mmt; 4.35mmt in 3QFY22 and 3.96mmt in 2QFY23). MRPL achieved the highest ATF production in Oct’22 (209tmt v/s previous peak of 178tmt in Sep’22). It also dispatched its highest ever MS of 154tmt in domestic market in Oct’22 (previous best was 140tmt in Oct’21). The company also exported ATF cargo of 65tmt for the first time ever in Nov’22. Singapore GRM remained steady and has been at USD10.2/bbl in Jan’23YTD; it touched a record high of USD21.7/bbl in 1QFY23. It stood at USD6.2/bbl in 3Q and USD7.1/bbl in 2QFY23; this trend highlightsthat a sustained good performance remains a concern given the highly volatile macro environment at present.
Outlook
Considering the above factors, we maintain our Neutral rating on the stock with a TP of INR66.
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