JM Financial's research report on Tata Motors
In 4QFY18, Tata Motors reported consol. EBITDA margin of 13.1% (-220bps YoY), impacted by subdued performance at JLR lead by higher marketing expense, and one-time charges for projects de-prioritized under “Fit for Future”. Higher sales volumes in China, favourable mix and adoption of accrual accounting in China, partially blunted the impact from higher D&A and marketing expense. At the standalone level, EBITDA margin improved 250bps YoY to 6.9% due to positive operating leverage arising from 34% volume growth in CV sales. Also, strong growth in new models, helped improve the market share to 5.7% (+50bps YoY) in PVs. The Company’s focused ‘Impact’ program ranging from plugging gaps in CV portfolio, reducing vehicle platforms in PVs and other cost reduction efforts also aided standalone business performance. Basis the current headwinds in major market like UK, Europe and to some extent US, we estimate 9% CAGR in JLR volumes over FY18-20E. During the same period, domestic PVs are likely to record 11%+ CAGR, driven by new models covering wider segments in PVs.
Outlook
We maintain BUY with a revised TP of INR 400. Higher-than-estimated stress in JLR volume / margin and adverse currency movements are key risks to our view.
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