Motilal Oswal 's research report on Petronet LNG
PLNG continues to outperform volume estimates. 2QFY21 volumes were better than estimated (at 254tbtu, +5% est.) and led to an EBITDA beat due to inventory gain. This was owing to sharp increase in spot prices during the quarter. We expect LNG imports to increase further as demand from CGDs and other segments normalize in 3Q-4QFY21. This should be aided further by continued strong demand from the power sector and new fertilizer plants coming up in FY22. Also, the NGT’s actions against severely/critically polluted industrial clusters would lead to higher adoption of gas from industries.
Outlook
The stock trades at 11.4x FY22E EPS of INR21.3 and 6.5x FY22E EV/EBITDA, with expected EBITDA CAGR of ~11% over FY20-23E. We value PLNG on DCF basis to arrive at a fair value of INR335. Reiterate Buy.
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