Anand Rathi's research report on Hindustan Unilever
Broadly as estimated amid the GST rate-cut transition and a prolonged monsoon, HUL’s Q2FY26 performance was weak. Revenue inched up ~1% y/y to Rs155bn (vs. the Street’s Rs158bn estimate) with flat volumes and a 22.9% EBITDA margin (vs. 22.2%). The new CEO Priya Nair iterated the focus on volume-led growth through sharper consumer segmentation, premiumisation, brand modernisation and acceleration in digital and quick comm. 40% of the company’s portfolio now falls under the 5% GST rate and, despite near-term trade disruptions, management was optimistic of a stronger H2 FY26, driven by festival demand, GST normalisation and greater rural/urban demand. Management retained its 22–23% near-term EBITDA margin guidance (ice cream de-merger to add 50bps) and 23–24% in the medium term. To factor in all this, we lower our FY26e/27e EPS 2% each and introduce FY28e.
Outlook
We retain our Buy, with a higher 12-mth TP of Rs2,910, 53x Sep’27e EPS (earlier Rs2,840, 53x FY27e EPS).
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