ICICI Securities research report on Gulf Oil Lubricants India
Gulf Oil (GOLI) delivered a stellar performance in the preceding 5–6 quarters – consistent YoY revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth driven by industry leading volume growth in lubricants and sharply higher growth for the Adblue segment. However, the momentum in volumes may ease for Q2, owing to a slowing in the CV space for GOLI, impacting the factory fill segment (~8- 10% of overall business in FY24). Resultant, sequential growth may wane for Q2, even as YoY growth remains in mid-teens. Nonetheless, our optimism on future growth is strong with lower oil (and hence LOBS) prices, continued premiumisation of product portfolio (driving margins higher) and potential of the EV charger business to become an INR 7bn revenue segment in the next few years. We raise our FY26E/FY27E EPS by 1.9%/3.3%, baking in higher margins, TP to INR 1,650. Retain BUY.
Outlook
Our valuation, averaging two-year forward PER, EV/EBITDA and target PEG multiples implies a target price of INR 1,650 (earlier INR 1,375), 21% upside from CMP.
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