February 09, 2017 / 17:34 IST
GDPL reported EBITDA (RAIL + CFS) of INR 587m (est. of INR 592m; +8% YoY, +1% QoQ). PAT (before associate/minority interests) of INR 257m (-12% YoY, +2% QoQ) was above our estimate of INR 243m due to lower interest cost at INR 74m (est. of INR89m; +61% YoY, -16% QoQ) and higher other income at INR 83m (est. of INR 67m; +78% YoY, +4% QoQ).
Outlook
Our FY16-19 volume CAGR assumptions for the rail/CFS divisions stand at 11%/8%. We value GDPL based on SOTP-based fair value of INR 314/share, valuing CFS business at 12x FY19E earnings, 40% stake in Snowman at 50% discount to market value, and rail segment at 15x FY19E EV/EBITDA (premium to CONCOR). The stock trades at 18.5x FY19E adjusted EPS of INR 14.3 (adjusted for Blackstone’s stake of 49% in rail). The company’s dividend yield stands at 2-3%. Maintain Buy.
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