India’s quick commerce market to hit $57 billion by 2030 on rising demand beyond metros, says Morgan Stanley

India’s quick commerce market to hit $57 bn by 2030 on rising demand beyond metros, says Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley has raised its estimate for India’s quick commerce (QC) total addressable market (TAM) to $57 billion by 2030, citing faster-than-expected user growth and deeper expansion beyond top metros. The brokerage flagged the accelerating momentum as a key tailwind for Zomato parent, Eternal, which operates Blinkit and holds a leadership position in the space.

The updated forecast marks a significant jump from Morgan Stanley’s earlier projection of $42 billion, and reflects broader adoption of 10–30-minute delivery services across more cities and households.

Blinkit’s growth powering quick commerce expansion

Morgan Stanley raised its gross order value (GOV) estimates for the quick commerce segment by 9–11 percent for FY26–28. The adjusted EBITDA loss margin is expected to peak in Q4 FY25, suggesting that while growth is being prioritised in the near term, the path to profitability remains intact.

The revised TAM projection reflects not just higher demand, but also structural expansion of the market—driven by a rising number of cities and a broader base of monthly transacting users (MTUs). Eternal’s quick commerce business, the report noted, is “primed for growth” with a profitability profile over the medium term that is expected to mirror its food delivery operations.

This comes even as industry watchers have pointed out that, though quick commerce has been growing rapidly, companies operating in the space may find it challenging to keep up the growth momentum in the medium to long term.

Quick commerce firms are likely to face hurdles such as a low total addressable market (TAM), tapering growth in monthly transacting users (MTUs), and increased competition from e-commerce players, as they look to scale beyond the top consumer markets, as per the Indus Valley 2025 report by venture capital firm Blume Ventures.

Regardless, quick commerce operators, including Blinkit, Instamart, Zepto, and Flipkart Minutes continue to expand aggressively, setting up dark stores in a bid to claw away market share.

Eternal (formerly Zomato) chief Deepinder Goyal had said in March this year that quick commerce companies are burning Rs 5,000 crore a quarter and Zepto alone accounted for substantially more than half of that cash burn amount.

A recent report by Motilal Oswal pegged Blinkit’s market share at 46 percent, with Zepto in second spot at 29 percent. Swiggy Instamart was third among major players, accounting for 25 percent.

Turnaround in food delivery?

After a period of muted growth, India’s food delivery market is showing early signs of recovery. While Morgan Stanley has kept its GOV estimates for the segment unchanged, it has raised margin expectations, citing better monetization and improved fixed cost absorption.

With penetration still at around 14 percent—compared to 19–21 percent in the US and China—India’s food delivery market continues to offer significant headroom for growth. Eternal’s consistent market share gains point to strong operational execution, the report said.

To be sure, food delivery majors Swiggy and Zomato have been reporting slowing growth over the past few quarters, visible in their quarterly results, amid an ongoing slowdown in consumption.

Both firms have faced challenges in onboarding new customers and even scale beyond the top eight cities, Moneycontrol reported earlier.

Dual leadership in a growing market

By holding leadership positions in both food delivery and quick commerce, Eternal is uniquely positioned to dominate a growing profit pool, the brokerage noted. Its strong balance sheet and focus on unit economics give it an edge as the industry expands and matures.

Morgan Stanley identified key catalysts for the sector in the coming quarters, including sustained growth in quick commerce GOV, continued improvement in food delivery margins, and a stable competitive environment. These factors, it said, could help re-rate the broader segment.