Moneycontrol Pro Panorama | Has Trump’s taking credit for the India-Pak ceasefire alienated India?

Dear Reader,

How did you feel when Donald Trump tweeted credit for the India-Pakistan ceasefire even before either country made an announcement? That he had no business doing so—right?

I felt the same. No surprise then that India rightly rejected Trump’s claims.

Donald Trump’s penchant for grandstanding has landed him in hot water with India, a rising global power that fiercely guards its sovereignty. By claiming credit for brokering a ceasefire between India and Pakistan and offering to mediate the Kashmir dispute, Trump crossed a line that New Delhi has drawn in stone for decades: no third-party interference in its affairs with Pakistan.

India’s sharp rebuttal—dismissing Trump’s trade leverage claims and rejecting his mediation offer outright—signals deep frustration with his unsolicited intervention.

The saga began on May 10, 2025, when Trump announced on Truth Social that his administration had brokered a “full and immediate ceasefire” between India and Pakistan after four days of intense clashes, sparked by the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 people.

India’s Operation Sindoor, a retaliatory strike on terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan, had escalated tensions, with both sides trading drone and missile attacks.

Trump, speaking at the US-Saudi Investment Forum, boasted that he used trade as a lever, urging both nations to “trade the things you make so beautifully” instead of “nuclear missiles”. The businessman-turned-politician even suggested a cosy dinner for Indian and Pakistani leaders, painting himself as the master peacemaker. His Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, claimed that the US facilitated talks on “a broad set of issues”, while Trump offered to resolve the Kashmir dispute, a conflict he inaccurately framed as a “thousand-year” saga.

India’s reaction was swift and unequivocal. External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal clarified that the ceasefire was negotiated directly between the Directors General of Military Operations (DGMOs) of India and Pakistan, with Pakistan initiating the call at 3:35 p.m. on May 10.

“The force of Indian arms compelled Pakistan to stop its firing,” Jaiswal asserted, dismissing any US mediation. He also rejected Trump’s trade claims, stating that trade was never discussed during India’s meetings with US officials from May 7 to May 10.

On Kashmir, Jaiswal reiterated India’s long-standing position: the issue is bilateral, and Pakistan must vacate illegally occupied Indian territory. He further debunked Trump’s nuclear war narrative, noting that Operation Sindoor was “entirely in the conventional domain”, and Pakistan’s foreign minister too denied any nuclear angle.

India’s irritation isn’t just about Trump’s factual inaccuracies—it’s about sovereignty.

Some history lessons for Trump

It would make sense for Trump to revisit history before overstepping into India’s affairs.

For decades, India has rejected third-party mediation on Kashmir, viewing it as an internal matter rooted in Pakistan’s illegal occupation since 1947.

The 1972 Simla Agreement, which mandates bilateral resolution, is sacrosanct.

Trump’s offer to mediate, coupled with his claim of using trade leverage, struck a nerve—especially as India negotiates a trade deal with the US, its largest trading partner, with $130 billion in bilateral trade in 2024.

The optics of Trump announcing the ceasefire before New Delhi could issue its own statement fuelled perceptions of foreign overreach. Even India’s opposition Congress party questioned whether the Modi government had opened the door to mediation.

India’s response mirrors China’s playbook when faced with US pressure.

During Trump’s first term, China faced crippling tariffs on billions in exports, but stood firm, retaliating with duties on US goods like soybeans and pork. Beijing’s refusal to bend, coupled with strategic negotiations, led to the 2020 Phase One trade deal, which secured commitments from the US to reduce tariffs and boosted Chinese exports. China showed that a major economy can challenge US coercion and emerge stronger.

What next?

Now, with India signalling retaliatory tariffs on $7.6 billion worth of US imports in response to steel and aluminium duties, the question looms: Has Trump disappointed India with his heavy-handed approach to the India-Pakistan conflict?

On May 9, 2025, India notified the World Trade Organization (WTO) of its intent to impose tariffs on $7.6 billion worth of US imports in retaliation for Trump’s 25 percent duties on steel and aluminium imposed in March 2025. India argues these duties are safeguard measures that violate WTO rules and asserts its right to respond due to the US’s failure to consult under the Agreement on Safeguards.

This tariff threat sends a clear message: India won’t be cowed by Trump’s bluster. Like China, India is leveraging its economic clout to assert autonomy. It refuses to let Trump’s narrative of trade-driven diplomacy undermine its strategic goals.

The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, a punitive measure against Pakistan post-Pahalgam, remains in place—underscoring India’s resolve to act unilaterally against terror sponsors, regardless of US posturing.

Delhi’s Message to Trump

Unlike smaller nations, India’s size, military might, and economic momentum give it the confidence to reject external pressures.

Kashmir isn’t just a territorial issue—it’s a symbol of India’s unity and its decades-long resilience against Pakistan-sponsored terrorism. Allowing third-party mediation would legitimise Pakistan’s claims and dilute India’s control over Jammu and Kashmir—a red line for every Indian government.

PM Modi’s “new normal” of striking terrorist hideouts, as outlined in his May 11 address, reflects a doctrine of pre-emption—not negotiation under foreign pressure. Trump’s offer, however well-intentioned, ignores this strategic shift, risking India’s trust at a time when US-India ties are crucial for countering China and securing Indo-Pacific stability.

Trump’s intervention disappointed India not because it sought peace, but because it disregarded India’s core principles. His exaggerated and unsolicited claim of brokering the ceasefire cast a shadow over India’s military success in forcing Pakistan’s hand.

His mediation offer on Kashmir—a non-starter—rekindled memories of his 2019 claim that Modi had requested his help, which India swiftly denied. By framing himself as the saviour who averted a “bad nuclear war”, Trump trivialised India’s calibrated response to terrorism and alienated a key partner.

India’s tariff warning to the WTO is a reminder that it can—and will—play hardball to protect its interests.

As the ceasefire holds—albeit shakily, with reported violations in Srinagar—India’s message is crystal clear: It will chart its own course.

Trump’s deal-making bravado may work elsewhere, but in South Asia, it’s a misstep.

Let this be clear—India will never compromise its sovereignty by allowing third-party mediation in its conflict with Pakistan. And it's willing to risk trade tensions to prove it.

The US needs India’s partnership, not its resentment.

Trump would do well to take a page from India’s playbook: respect sovereignty, and the deals will follow.

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Dinesh Unnikrishnan
Moneycontrol Pro