Trading Plan: Can Nifty reach 23,000 mark, Bank Nifty move beyond 50,000 post FOMC meet outcome?

NIfty Trading Plan

The momentum remained strong for the third straight session, with the Nifty 50 surpassing the 50% Fibonacci retracement with above-average volumes. The index also traded above short-term moving averages with a positive RSI. The US Federal Reserve's policy meeting outcome was in line with expectations. Hence, with bullish momentum, the Nifty 50 is likely to reclaim 23,000 (50-day EMA), followed by 23,100 soon. However, support is placed at the 22,700-22,650 zone, experts said. The Bank Nifty is likely to move beyond the 50,000 mark considering the strong rally in the past; however, support lies at the 49,250 level.

On Wednesday, March 19, the Nifty 50 climbed 73 points to finish at 22,908, while the Bank Nifty jumped 388 points to 49,703, with market breadth strongly favouring bulls. A total of 2,196 shares saw buying interest compared to 444 shares that declined on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Sudeep Shah, Deputy Vice President and Head of Technical and Derivative Research at SBI Securities

The benchmark Nifty index broke out of a seven-day consolidation phase on Tuesday, paving the way for an extended pullback rally. This upward momentum propelled the index above its 20-day EMA and beyond the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of its previous decline from 23,807 to 21,965. On a week-to-date basis, Nifty has gained 2.28%, reflecting a strong recovery. Notably, the broader market has outpaced the benchmark, with the Nifty Midcap and Nifty Small Cap 100 indices surging by over 5% during the same period. This widespread participation across segments underscores the strength of the ongoing pullback rally.

Going ahead, for Nifty, the zone of 23,100-23,130 will act as a crucial hurdle for the index, as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of its prior decline is placed in that region. If the index sustains above the level of 23,130, it is likely to test its 200-day EMA level, which is currently placed at 23,400. On the downside, the 20-day EMA zone of 23,700-23,650 is likely to provide a cushion in case of any immediate decline.

Key Resistance: 23,130, 23,400

Key Support: 23,700, 23,650

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures at 22,969, with a stop-loss of 22,850, targeting 23,300.

Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan

On the daily charts, we can observe that the Nifty has seen follow-through buying interest despite weak global cues. It has managed to close above the 40-day average (22,877), which is a bullish sign. The hourly momentum indicator has slipped into the negative, so there can be some consolidation; however, the undertone remains bullish. Dips towards the support zone (22,800 – 22,780) should be considered a buying opportunity. On the upside, 23,080 – 23,100 is the short-term target, while 22,730 – 22,650 is the crucial support zone. Broader markets have also joined in and started to contribute significantly. The Midcap and the Small Cap indices were up 2.56% and 2.41%, respectively, which is a bullish sign.

Key Resistance: 23,080, 23,100

Key Support: 22,810, 22,780

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on a dip around 22,800 – 22,780, with a stop-loss of 22,700, targeting 23,000 - 23,050.

Vidnyan S Sawant, Head of Research at GEPL Capital

The Nifty index is holding steady above its previous three-week high, signaling an initial recovery. On the weekly charts, it has filled a recent gap created three weeks ago. Meanwhile, the daily charts show a higher top-higher bottom formation, with the index sustaining above the crucial 22,800 level. Immediate resistance is seen at 23,055, followed by 23,450 and 23,700. On the downside, key support levels are placed at 22,500, followed by 22,300 and 22,000.

Key Resistance: 23,055, 23,450

Key Support: 22,500, 22,300

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures above 23,055 for a target of 23,450 and 23,700, with a stop-loss of 22,800.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Sudeep Shah, Deputy Vice President and Head of Technical and Derivative Research at SBI Securities

The banking benchmark index, Bank Nifty, has given a neckline breakout of the Adam & Adam Double Bottom pattern on a daily scale. Along with this, it has surged above its 20 and 50-day EMA levels. These averages started edging higher. Most notably, the daily RSI has surged above the 60 mark for the first time since December 2024, which is a bullish sign. Hence, we believe the index is likely to continue its northward journey and test the level of 50,600 in the short term. On the downside, the 50-day EMA zone of 49,300-49,200 will act as crucial support for the index.

Key Resistance: 50,600

Key Support: 49,300, 49,200

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures at CMP, with a stop-loss of 49,500, targeting 50,500.

Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan

Bank Nifty has been the leader of this current run-up. After closing above the key short-term moving averages, it has witnessed follow-through buying interest, indicating that the positive momentum is likely to continue. The positive crossover on the daily momentum indicator supports our bullish outlook on Bank Nifty. On the upside, we expect the Bank Nifty to test the February swing high of 50,600 – 50,640. Dips towards 49,500 – 49,450 should be considered a buying opportunity.

Key Resistance: 50,600, 50,640

Key Support: 49,500, 49,450

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips towards 49,500, with a stop-loss of 49,200, targeting 50,200.

Vidnyan S Sawant, Head of Research at GEPL Capital

On the weekly timeframe, Bank Nifty is forming a strong bullish candle, sustaining at a five-week high, and outperforming the benchmark Nifty. On the daily charts, it has given a breakout above a descending trend line with a gap-up, signaling strong bullish momentum. Additionally, the index has formed a Double Bottom pattern near the 47,800 level, a classic bullish reversal setup. The immediate resistance levels are at 50,650, followed by 51,700, while key support is placed at 49,000 and 48,100.

Key Resistance: 50,650, 51,700

Key Support: 49,000, 48,100

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures at 49,950 for a target of 50,650 and 51,700, with a stop-loss of 49,500.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.