Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50 hold 24,600, Bank Nifty stay above 55,500 after Trump’s 25% tariff on India, Fed move?

Nifty Trading Plan for July 31

The Nifty 50 finished with moderate gains, outperforming the Bank Nifty—which saw profit booking—on July 30, ahead of the monthly F&O expiry due on July 31. Overall, the market is expected to remain consolidative and rangebound in the upcoming sessions. If the Nifty fails to take support at the 24,700–24,600 zones amid Trump’s 25 percent tariff on India and the Fed maintaining the status quo on rates, the selling pressure may widen. However, the 24,950–25,000 zone is likely to act as a hurdle on the higher side. Meanwhile, as long as the Bank Nifty trades below 56,600, the consolidation may continue, with support seen at 55,800-55,500. A break on either side of these levels could provide a firm directional move, according to experts.

On July 30, the Nifty 50 rose 34 points to 24,855, while the Bank Nifty declined 71 points to 56,151, with market breadth slightly in favour of bulls. A total of 1,355 shares gained compared to 1,299 shares that came under pressure on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

On Tuesday, the benchmark Nifty index formed a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern on the daily chart—a strong price action signal that typically suggests a potential trend reversal. However, Wednesday’s session lacked strong directional movement, as the index traded in a narrow range and ended with a small-bodied candle featuring a prominent lower shadow. This formation suggests intraday buying interest at lower levels, but it does not provide a decisive signal.
At present, key moving averages and momentum indicators remain inconclusive, offering no clear directional bias.

Going forward, traders will closely watch for a follow-through move in either direction. Further price action is required to confirm the validity of Tuesday’s bullish pattern or to negate it with fresh signs of weakness.

The 50-day EMA zone of 24,930–24,960 will act as an immediate hurdle. Any sustainable move above 24,960 may lead to an extension of the pullback rally up to 25,100. On the downside, the zone of 24,730–24,700 will act as crucial support. A breach below this level may invite fresh selling pressure, extending towards the 100 EMA zone of 24,550–24,600.

Key Resistance: 24,960, 25,100

Key Support: 24,700, 24,600

(Conditional) Strategy: Buy Nifty July Futures on dips (due to the Trump tariff announcement) between 24,700–24,750, with a stop-loss of 24,580, targeting 24,950–25,000.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

The Nifty moved in a tight range, staying below the 50-day EMA (24,950) on the daily chart. The short-term outlook remains mildly weak, as the index holds under this key moving average. Nonetheless, a potential recovery remains on the table, backed by a bullish reversal pattern and a hidden positive divergence.

In simple terms, the index could head towards 25,000–25,200 in the short term, as long as it holds above the 24,750 support. A fall below this level may dampen market sentiment.

Key Resistance: 25,000, 25,200

Key Support: 24,750, 24,450

Strategy: Sell Nifty August Futures below 24,850, with a stop-loss of 24,950, for a target of 24,700.

Riyank Arora, Technical Analyst at Mehta Equities

The Nifty has faced resistance at 24,900, while support is positioned at 24,600 and 24,500. The overall trend appears weak, and a downtrend is likely in the near term. RSI and MACD suggest weakening momentum, indicating a possible pullback or decline. Traders should remain cautious and monitor for signs of further weakness in the index.

Key Resistance: 24,900

Key Support: 24,600, 24,500

Strategy: Sell Nifty July Futures at 24,850 with a stop-loss of 24,950. Target downside towards 24,600 and 24,500.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

The banking benchmark index, Bank Nifty, has underperformed the frontline indices for the second consecutive trading session. Notably, the index traded in a narrow range of 256 points, the lowest daily range since July 07.

Going ahead, the support zone of 55,800–55,700 will be crucial. Holding above this band is essential to maintain the current short-term positive bias. On the flip side, the resistance zone of 56,400–56,500 is expected to pose a significant challenge. A decisive and sustainable breakout above 56,500 could pave the way for an extended pullback rally, with immediate upside targets at 56,900, followed by 57,500 in the near term.

Key Resistance: 56,400, 56,500, 56,900

Key Support: 55,800, 55,700

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty July Futures above 56,400, with a stop-loss of 56,000, targeting 57,000.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

Bank Nifty has reclaimed the 50-day EMA on the daily chart and closed above it for the second consecutive day. Additionally, the index formed a Bullish Engulfing-like pattern on Tuesday (though not a classical one), which remains in play. However, the RSI is in a bearish crossover and falling.

In the short term, the index may move towards 56,700, with strength intact as long as it stays above 56,000. However, a fall below 56,000 might resume the downtrend, leading to a decline towards 55,500.

Key Resistance: 56,300, 56,700

Key Support: 55,800, 55,500

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty August Futures below 56,200, for a target of 55,900, with a stop-loss of 56,400.

Riyank Arora, Technical Analyst at Mehta Equities

Bank Nifty is facing resistance at 56,600, with key support levels at 55,800 and 55,500. The index shows signs of weak momentum, and a downtrend is expected to continue. Indicators such as RSI and MACD reflect a lack of strength.

Traders should focus on potential pullbacks and expect further downward movement if the support levels fail to hold.

Key Resistance: 56,600

Key Support: 55,800, 55,500

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty July Futures at 56,200 with a stop-loss of 56,500. Target downside towards 55,800 and 55,500.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.