Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50 defend 24,300, Bank Nifty hold 55,000 amid elevated volatility?

Nifty Trading Plan

The Nifty 50 managed to sustain above 24,300 for another session despite consolidation, closing flat on April 30. Broadly, it has remained in the range of 24,460–24,850 for more than a week. Experts still believe the overall trend remains positive, even as the India VIX climbed above 18 levels, given that the index is still trading well above all key moving averages. If the index decisively breaks 24,460, a rally toward 24,800 is possible; however, a fall below 24,000 may drag the index toward the lower range. The Bank Nifty defended the 55,000 level for the third straight session. If it breaks below this, the 54,700–54,400 zone may act as support. Conversely, holding above 55,000 can gradually propel the index toward 56,000, according to experts.

On Wednesday, April 30, the Nifty 50 declined by nearly 2 points to close at 24,334, while the Bank Nifty dropped 304 points to 55,087. Market breadth was weak, with about 1,988 shares declining compared to 544 advancing on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Sudeep Shah, the Deputy Vice President and Head of Technical and Derivative Research at SBI Securities

The benchmark index Nifty wrapped up April on a strong footing, posting a robust gain of 3.46 percent for the month. On the monthly chart, the index formed a sizeable bullish candle with a long lower shadow, indicating that buying interest picked up every time the market dipped. This positive price action highlights the underlying strength and resilience of the market.

What makes this rally even more noteworthy is that it unfolded despite persistent global headwinds. Concerns over trade war tensions, heightened volatility in commodity prices, and a sharp fall in the US dollar index created a choppy global environment. Yet, the domestic market showed remarkable stability, supported by sustained buying interest and improving investor sentiment.

From a technical perspective, Nifty continues to trade well above its key short- and long-term moving averages, further reinforcing the bullish bias. Notably, the daily RSI recently found support near the 60 mark and rebounded, which is a bullish signal based on RSI range shift rules. As we enter a new month, the overall structure remains positive, although traders should be prepared for volatility amid ongoing global uncertainties.

Over the last eight trading sessions, the index has oscillated in the 23,847–24,457 range. Going forward, a sustainable move above the 24,460–24,500 zone could lead to a sharp upside rally toward 24,800, followed by 25,000. On the downside, the 24,130–24,100 zone is likely to act as a cushion in case of a decline.

Key Resistance: 24,460, 24,500, 24,800, 25,000

Key Support: 24,130, 24,100

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures in the 24,350–24,300 zone with a stop-loss at 24,230. The upside target is 24,450, followed by 24,540.

Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst, Capital Market Strategy at Mirae Asset Sharekhan

On the daily charts, Nifty has been consolidating in the 23,840–24,460 range for the past nine sessions. This consolidation follows a 12% (2,700-point) rally. Sector rotation is helping Nifty remain at elevated levels. We expect this consolidation to continue, as the options chain indicates traders are creating short straddles at the 24,300 and 24,400 strikes. The combined premium of the straddle is 470 points, suggesting a trading range of 23,800–24,700. The weekly PCR (Put/Call Ratio) based on open interest is at 0.98, indicating a neutral stance.

Considering both technical and derivative data, we expect Nifty to trade in the 24,400–23,900 range in the short term. The ideal strategy is to take contrarian positions at the extremes of the range. For instance, since Nifty is currently near the upper end of the range and close to a key resistance at 24,500, the risk-reward is favourable for a short position with a stop-loss at 24,400, and vice versa.

Key Resistance: 24,400, 24,500

Key Support: 24,000, 23,900

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures with a stop-loss at 24,400, targeting 24,000.

Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

Nifty is consolidating in a narrow range after a strong rally but continues to sustain above its 10-day EMA, with RSI in bullish crossover—indicating a strong bullish undertone. As long as Nifty holds above 24,100, the trend is expected to remain positive, with an upside potential toward the 24,800 mark. Key support is seen in the 24,150–24,200 zone.

Key Resistance: 24,800

Key Support: 24,200, 24,150

Strategy: A conditional buy strategy is advised—buy Nifty May Futures above 24,570 with a stop-loss at 24,420, targeting 24,800. The maximum loss is Rs 11,250, and the maximum profit is Rs 17,250.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Sudeep Shah, the Deputy Vice President and Head of Technical and Derivative Research at SBI Securities

The Bank Nifty has delivered a standout performance, strongly outperforming broader frontline indices. The index even scaled a fresh all-time high during the month, underscoring strength in the banking sector. By the end of April, Bank Nifty posted an impressive gain of nearly 7 percent, extending its leadership in the market rally.

Currently, with the index trading near record-high levels, all key moving averages and momentum indicators are aligned to the upside, reflecting strong bullish momentum. However, after this sharp rally, Bank Nifty has entered a consolidation phase over the past six sessions—a healthy pause to digest gains and form a base for the next leg upward.

The broader technical setup remains favourable, though near-term consolidation may persist before fresh upward momentum resumes. The 55,900–56,000 zone will act as a crucial hurdle. A sustainable move above 56,000 could trigger a sharp rally toward 56,600 and then 57,000. On the downside, immediate support lies in the 54,500–54,400 zone.

Key Resistance: 55,900, 56,000, 56,600, 57,000

Key Support: 54,500, 54,400

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures in the 55,100–55,000 zone with a stop-loss at 54,600. The upside target is 55,600, followed by 56,000.

Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst, Capital Market Strategy at Mirae Asset Sharekhan

Bank Nifty has been consolidating for six sessions after touching a new all-time high of 56,098.70. This consolidation is seen as a healthy pause in the ongoing uptrend. It will help momentum indicators cool off from overbought levels and allow the index to build a base for the next leg up toward 56,450–57,000. Key support is in the 54,500–54,300 zone. A pullback toward this support area should be viewed as a buying opportunity.

Key Resistance: 55,500, 56,000

Key Support: 54,500, 54,300

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips toward 54,500 for a target of 56,000.

Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities

In Wednesday’s session, Bank Nifty formed a bearish candlestick on the daily chart, signaling short-term weakness. However, the broader trend remains bullish as the index continues to sustain above its 10-day EMA. Some consolidation is expected in the near term within a broad range of 54,200–55,500.

Key Resistance: 55,500

Key Support: 54,200

Strategy: A conditional sell strategy is recommended—sell Bank Nifty May Futures below 54,980 with a stop-loss at 55,230, targeting 54,500. The maximum profit is Rs 14,400, while the maximum loss is Rs 7,500.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.