Technical View: Nifty closes near 9-month high, next target seen at 25,350; VIX hits 3-month low

Nifty Uptrend

The Nifty 50 extended its upward journey for another session and closed at a nearly nine-month high on June 25, ahead of the June Futures & Options contracts expiry scheduled for tomorrow. A decline in the India VIX to a near three-month low, along with subdued oil prices following the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, boosted overall market sentiment.

Following a bullish breakout from the consolidation range of 24,500–25,200, experts expect the Nifty to advance toward its next immediate target zone of 25,300–25,350, followed by 25,500–25,600 levels, provided it holds above the key support zone of 25,000–25,100.

The Nifty 50 opened 100 points higher at 25,150 and remained in positive territory throughout the session. The index gained further strength in the second half, hitting a day’s high of 25,267, before closing 200 points higher at 25,245, the highest closing level since October 3, 2024. It formed a bullish candle after trading within the previous day’s range and sustained above all short-term moving averages, with positive crossovers observed in both the RSI and Stochastic RSI. The MACD is also on the verge of a positive crossover, with further improvement in its histogram, all indicating continued uptrend from current levels.

Expert Views

According to Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, the 25,000–25,100 zone will act as a key support for trend-following traders. A breakdown below these levels could make the uptrend vulnerable.

“As long as the market is trading above these levels, the bullish sentiment is likely to continue. On the higher side, 25,300 would act as an immediate resistance zone for day traders. A successful breakout above 25,300 could push the market towards 25,450–25,500,” he said.

Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, also believes a further sustainable upside could lift the Nifty towards the next target of 25,600–25,700 levels in the near term.

Options Data

Monthly options data suggest that the Nifty may trade in the 25,000–25,500 range in the near term.

Maximum Call Open Interest was at the 26,000 strike, followed by 25,500 and 25,300 strikes. Maximum Call writing was seen at 25,250, followed by 25,600 and 25,300 strikes.

Maximum Put Open Interest was at 25,200, followed by 25,000 and 25,100 strikes. Maximum Put writing was observed at the 25,200 strike, followed by 25,150 and 25,250 strikes.

Bank Nifty Outlook

The benchmark banking index Bank Nifty also traded within the previous day's range and closed 159 points higher at 56,621, forming a bullish candle with upper and lower shadows on the daily chart—indicating consolidation. The index held above short-term moving averages with positive crossovers in the RSI and Stochastic RSI, while the MACD is trending upward, approaching a positive crossover with further improvement in the histogram.

Looking ahead, the banking index is poised to retest its all-time high near 57,050, with a potential extension toward 57,600 in the coming weeks, according to analysts at Bajaj Broking Research.

The key structural support is placed in the 54,500–54,000 zone, marked by the confluence of the 50-day EMA and important Fibonacci retracement levels, which are expected to act as a strong downside cushion.

Volatility Indicator

Meanwhile, the India VIX, the market’s fear gauge, dropped further by 4.98 percent to 12.96, marking its lowest closing level since March 28. This decline in volatility continues to provide comfort for the bulls.

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