Stockology: April to September holds significant potential for investors

Weekly range of Nifty is Downside 2 percent, and, on the upside, it seems 1.4 percent.

Stockology is a weekly column by futurologist Mahesh Gowande. He is the Founder and Director of Ayan Analytics, which has developed ZodiacAnalyst, a research software with time and price charting tools.

Read previous columns here 

Happy New financial year 2024-2025 to every Indian who files returns in India.

Review

Last week's price movement  was a no-brainer, even a child would have been able to predict it. So, there is nothing much to write about it. But before we get into the weekly market view, I'd like to post something about this year's solar eclipse, about which many have requested some insight.

The first solar eclipse falls on April 8, 2024, this year. Per the SAROS series, it is S.S 8 North 139. The series started on May 17, 1501, at the North Pole, and will end on June 23, 2745.

Solar eclipse 139 has exerted a significant influence, nurturing deeper relationships within societies and nations, leading to more stability, logical thinking, and positive attitude among people.

Also read: Stockology: Downward trend could continue for the next 45 days before recovery

The new moon is at the midpoint of Mercury, Venus, and Pluto, which are powerful as they hold the midpoint of Venus/Saturn. Pluto's midpoint  means the central government and regulatory bodies will be active worldwide. A lot more positive action from the central banks will improve the economic outlook of the global markets, and bring more stability to the business world. Government-owned companies will do exceptionally well. Saturn and Pluto represent the defence sector, which  will also do well in the current year.

The Venus, Saturn, and Pluto combo indicates harmonious growth. Regional parties will come together, power will shift to more seasoned leaders, and the masses will vote more maturely than ever.

The eclipse will distinguish between experienced professionals and inexperienced newcomers. In the global markets, there will be smoother transactions. Mid and smallcap companies with a principled and  driven management will remain fundamentally stable and be chased by deep-pocketed investors. India is poised to attract substantial investments, driving stock prices and the overall market capitalisation upwards, similar to  the period between 2006 to January 2008.

April to September holds significant potential for investors.

Banking, healthcare, and fertilisers are the sectors to watch, and stocks that have underperformed from 2018  will recover  in the next six months.

We have another major solar eclipse — 144 — on October 2nd. This is not a good eclipse and has had a negative influence globally. We may see the October heat in markets across the world. We will write more about this 10 days before the eclipse.

Technical

On 28th March,  the Nifty reached 22,516 just shy of the previous high of 22,526.60. The recovery was restricted to a few heavy weights, and probably next week some more stocks might participate in the rally. But the risk in the market has increased significantly. Now the exit  has come nearer, at 22,170, and the short-sell trigger is at 21,520. Nonetheless, the current short, medium, and long term trends are all positive, and there's no cause for concern (unless there's heavy selling), but do reshuffle your portfolio and include quality stocks. The weekly stop is now at 21,110.

The weekly range of the Nifty indicates a downside 2 percent, and maybe an  upside of 1.4 percent.

Time map

The time map is not negative, but it is showing a lot of volatility and is a very stock specific market. However, bullish movement will keep the indices in the positive. High index-weightage stocks are indicating an upside, and with the eclipse effect mentioned above, specific stocks would see a big upward move. IT, CGS, and healthcare stocks are indicating aggressive inflow from institutions.

On April 3rd,  a Saturn and Neptune conjunction will bring more rationality to global politicians for a brief period of time.  Overall, it's a  positive week ahead, and smallcaps are looking attractive.

April 1, 2024: Monday: K.7: Moola: bullish day.

The way the Nifty witnessed selling in the last 30 minutes on Friday, it indicated a higher opening on April 1. The tithi often ensures bullish movement, and the Moola nakshatra is positive, which is  bullish for CGS (capital goods)  stocks like cement, steel, etc.

April 2, 2024: Tuesday: K.8: P. Shadha: positive day.

The tithi tends to give better results on mean reversion indicators,  and contrarian strategies can lead to nice profits.

It's a difficult day for trading, and most directional signals would trap participants, so be very choosy. A BTST (buy today, sell tomorrow)  strategy following an oversold reversal can give good results.

April 3, 2024: Wednesday: K.9: U. Shadha: auspicious day.

Divergence indicators indicate strong results. The  first half of the tithi is bullish, and the second half bearish, so hourly signal-based selling can give good returns. It is one of the best days of the week for  traders to make money. STBT and selective shorts can be initiated.

April 4, 2024: Thursday: K.10: Shravan: bad day.

Bad does not mean negative, but many false signals will get triggered and trap day traders. Delayed participation is suggested, market inflows and informed trades will give the best result.  Look for STBT kind of trades.

April 5, 2024: Friday: K.11: Dhanishta: auspicious day.

SIPs in ETF and index funds are highly recommended today.