PM Modi turns 75: Sensex rallied up to 245% under his leadership; what lies ahead?

Will Sensex hit 1 lakh before the end of PM Modi's third term?

Indian capital markets have seen strong surge since Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2014. Indian benchmark index Sensex rose up to 60,000 points since then, which implies gains to the tune of nearly 245 percent.

Analysts now expect the Indian stock markets to rally further, under PM Modi's leadership.

Sensex jumped 245% in 10 years:

Prime Minister Narendra Modi took charge on May 26, 2014. Sensex was trading at around 25,000-level then. The benchmark index then rallied more than 60,000 points (around 245 percent) in around 10 years to nearly touch the 86,000-mark in September 2024.

The index has now seen some correction, closing at 82,694 on September 17. Several analysts who spoke to Moneycontrol suggest that Sensex can rally sharply to hit the key 1,00,000-mark by the end of PM Modi's third term in 2029.

What led to the sharp gains?

According to Khushi Mistry, Research Analyst at Bonanza, Sensex and Nifty's massive gains since May 2014 have been driven by reforms-led FDI inflows, robust consumption growth, a banking sector reset, accelerated digital adoption, and strong corporate earnings, alongside global liquidity and a stable policy framework under the Modi government.

Sensex hitting 1 lakh by the end of PM Modi’s third term is possible if current earnings growth (14–16% CAGR), government reforms, and capex cycle sustain, she said, adding that risks include global volatility and oil prices. "Bullish estimates expect Sensex could hit the mark before 2029 if reforms stay on track, but any major shocks could delay this milestone," the analyst said.

'Sensex at 1 lakh is a very achievable target'

Shravan Shetty, Managing Director at Primus Partners, said hitting 1 lakh mark in the next three years is a very achievable target. “Historically, markets have grown at 12-15% and with markets at 82K, it should reach the target. We believe that the India story is still being played out, and with lower growth expected globally, especially the USA, we should see higher FII participation helping markets grow," he said.

Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart, believes it is quite possible for the Sensex to reach the 1,00,000 mark by the end of Prime Minister Modi’s third term, as it is only about 20 percent away from current levels.

'Valuations have become more reasonable now'

"After a year of flat returns, valuations have become more reasonable, creating a comfortable entry point. On the domestic front, growth-supportive factors remain strong, with recent income tax cuts, interest rate reductions, and GST rationalization acting as key catalysts that can drive the next leg of market expansion," he added.

Morgan Stanley in August had said that it sees Sensex hitting the key 1 lakh mark by June next year in bull case, citing a final trade deal with the US, more capex announcements, acceleration in loans, uniform improvement in high frequency data and improving trade with China as the likely triggers.

However, it had also suggested a bear case where Sensex could fall to 70,000 on the back of surging oil prices, slowing growth and more.

'Democratisation of India's capital markets under PM Modi's leadership'

Extending wishes to Prime Minister Narendra Modi on his 75th birthday, NSE CEO Ashish Chauhan on September 17 noted how India's capital markets developed under PM Modi’s leadership over the years. "Under his leadership, India has emerged as the world's fourth-largest economy and the fourth-largest capital market, with the equity market capitalisation of NSE-listed companies rising over 6 times-from about Rs 67 lakh crore in May 2014 to nearly Rs 460 lakh crore today," he said.

Chauhan said the "democratisation of capital markets" reflects the rise of India's middle class, with nearly one in four households now investing in equities, which underscores the growing trust in India's economic future under PM Modi’s leadership.

Also read: Mukesh Ambani wishes PM Modi, calls him 'avatar purush'

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.