Israel Strikes Iran: Oil spike to hit OMCs, airline, tyres, lubricant shares; 24,250 key support for Nifty

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26 Aug, 2025 12:21

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Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are likely to have a strong impact on Indian shares, with experts highlighting that the crude price spike would directly hit sectors like OMCs, airline, tyres and lubricant companies.

Both benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty opened nearly 1% down on June 13, tracking the global risk-off sentiment. Crude oil futures spiked over 10 percent to mark their steepest weekly rise since 2022 on the back of escalating conflict, with JPMorgan cautioning earlier that crude could climb to $130 per barrel in a worst-case scenario. Read More

Here are some views from analysts on possible impact of Israel-Iran conflict on Indian markets:

Prashanth Tapse, Mehta Equities

Geopolitical tensions invite a lot of volatility which was muted for some time in the last few months. Israel Iran strikes will have a material impact on global commodities and eventually impact the Indian economy. Technically speaking 24250 would be the biggest support as well as 50 DMA and in the worst-case scenario we may even touch 200 DMA placed at 24083. Traders advised to have light positions on the weekend trades.

Read More: Rupee down 55 paise, breaches 86 against USD as Israel strikes Iran

Ritesh Jain, Founder, PineTree Macro

The big thing India needs to be worried about is rising crude prices. Any sustained rise in crude prices will not only impact currency account deficit but also pressurize inflation and currency. I would suggest a cautious stance here especially in financials because RBI might need to tighten the domestic liquidity as a matter of precaution.

Sunny Agrawal, Head of Fundamental Research, SBI Securities

The ongoing conflict between Israel-Iran is likely to impact crude oil supplies and crude oil prices have spiked by more than 5% in a day. Street will keep keen eye on the Strait of Hormuz - the passage which is crucial for import of crude/LNG for India. Elevated crude oil prices for an elongated period can impact margins of OMCs, airline, tyres, lubricant cos etc. Tension in the Middle East can also hurt the business of basmati rice exporters.

Robert Subbaraman of Nomura to CNBC-TV18

Subbaraman said a sustained rise in crude prices could have a notable adverse impact on economies such as India and Thailand, which are heavily reliant on oil imports. He stated that Nomura’s inflation forecast for India for FY26 stands at 3.30 percent. Subbaraman also expects the Reserve Bank of India to implement two more rate cuts this year, although he cautioned that the trajectory of crude oil prices will be a critical factor influencing the central bank’s decisions. On global trade dynamics, he noted the possibility of the United States removing certain non-tariff barriers on Chinese imports. Additionally, he observed an emerging trend of strategic decoupling between the US and China, reflecting shifting geo-economic priorities.

Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and ED, Finrex Treasury

Oil will be the biggest to be impacted as can also be seen from oil prices. Every dollar rise in oil price increases CAD by $3 billion. We import from Iran which will not be available till the war stops. Rupee will be impacted as oil will have to buy the supplies at higher prices and more in quantity from other nations. Read More

Amit Pabari, CR Forex Advisors

The Israel–Iran conflict has reignited geopolitical tensions, pushing Brent crude prices up by 12% in just three sessions to nearly $75 per barrel. For India, an oil-dependent economy importing more than 85% —this sudden spike raises the risk of a wider trade deficit and mounting inflation, especially through elevated energy costs. With war-like sentiment unsettling global markets, demand for the U.S. dollar may rise, putting downward pressure on the Indian rupee. Technically, a break above 86.10 could pave the way for USD INR to move toward 86.70–86.90 in the near term. Unless the pair decisively closes below 85.80, the bias remains tilted toward a buy-on-dips. Moreover, Equity markets are also likely to face headwinds. The Nifty is currently holding support near 24,500; a decisive breach below this level could accelerate downside towards 23,900.

Ajay Bagga, Market Expert

The situation is too fluid to predict anything for now, as a major regional conflict could result or if Iran has been weakened too much over the last 2 years, then we could see posturing and rhetoric and then some calm. US futures being down will take global markets down with them today. Mostly these geopolitical risks lead to sharp, short term falls and then recoveries for markets. With Iran, oil supplies getting hit is the moot question which will keep risks elevated over the weekend and beyond.

Oil supplies linkage is the risk to Indian markets apart from the global risk off leading to FPI selling. We hope the impact will be short lived but any existential threat to the Iranian regime could lead to attacks on US and GCC assets in the region.

Naveen Vyas, Senior Vice President, Anand Rathi Global Finance

As india depends on imports for over 80% of its crude oil requirement, iran-israel war may spike up the brent crude prices as iran holds around 9% of world ‘s oil reserves affecting key indian sectors like oil marketing ( bpcl, hpcl and IOC), paints ( Asian paints, Berger paints etc) , auto and cement sector. This sector may face demand slowdown or margin pressure only if the tension between iran-israel escalate beyond 3-6 months and brent crude prices surpassing usd 82-85/ barrel level

Vaibhav Vidwani, Research Analyst at Bonanza

Iran-Israel conflict could strongly impact India as it charts its way forward in the energy transition movement. ~85% of the energy requirements of India are met by west Asian countries including Iran and Israel in terms of crude oil supplies. With the Iran-Israel conflict, the crude oil prices would rise that could disrupt the entire biome of energy economy of the country. Currently, the NIFTY ENERGY index is down 0.57% on 13-06-2025. We believe O&G companies to witness meaningful impact. Furthermore, we are also looking at supply chain disruptions that could impact the margins of the companies through higher costs and extended lead times. On the other hand, we could see green shoots of upticks in the defence space amidst the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.