Daily Voice: Focus on companies with domestic strength amid global trade risks, says Enam’s Jiten Doshi

With current valuations at a 15% premium to historical averages, market returns are likely to moderate to the 10–12% range, Doshi said

Jiten Doshi of Enam Asset Management Company believes the tariff uncertainty will persist even post-July 9 deadline. "Even if immediate risks fade, global trade recalibration will continue to drive volatility," he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

While India’s relative insulation helps, it cannot fully escape global shocks. Hence, focus on companies with strong domestic moats and limited global exposure, he advised.

With current valuations at a 15% premium to historical averages, market returns are likely to moderate to the 10–12% range, with volatility expected for the next 12 months, said the co-founder and chief investment officer at Enam Asset Management Company who has more than 32 years of experience in capital markets.

Do you strongly believe that India will get re-rated further over the next 3–5 years?

India’s structural growth story remains robust, but a broad-based market re-rating from current levels appears less likely. The Nifty now trades at a 10–15% premium to its 10-year average P/E, reflecting optimism around the country’s demographic dividend, digital transformation, and policy continuity.

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Jiten Doshi

Co-Founder and Chief Investment Officer|Enam Asset Management Company

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However, further upside will be selective, driven by companies that can consistently deliver double-digit earnings growth and demonstrate agility in adapting to evolving consumer and technological trends. The market’s next phase will reward execution, innovation, and value migration rather than sector-wide tailwinds.

Do you expect the RBI to revise its full-year growth forecast upward in the second half of FY26, considering the series of favourable announcements for growth?

The RBI’s 6.5% GDP growth forecast for FY26 is grounded in a balance of optimism and caution. While policy continuity, infrastructure spending, and financial inclusion are positive, the central bank remains vigilant about inflation and global headwinds. Only if data confirms a broad-based recovery in consumption and private capex will the RBI consider revising its outlook upward. For now, expect a measured, stability-first approach, with any revision contingent on sustained improvement in macro indicators.

Does the BFSI sector currently present a significant investment opportunity?

India’s BFSI sector is undergoing a profound transformation, both in scale and structure. Over the past two decades, BFSI market capitalization has soared more than 50x, reaching Rs 91 lakh crore in 2025 from Rs 1.8 lakh crore in 2005—a CAGR of ~22%. Yet, the sector’s composition is changing rapidly: while banks remain the backbone, their share of BFSI market cap has dropped from 85% in 2005 to 57% in 2025, as NBFCs, fintechs, insurance, and capital market players gain ground.

This shift is driven by several forces:

Shifting Customer Preferences: Digital-savvy clients increasingly seek hyper-personalized, seamless experiences, making loyalty fragile and traditional branch banking less relevant. The pace of new branch additions has slowed, while UPI transactions now account for 71% of GDP, up from just 1% in FY18.

Rise of Fee-Based and Non-Lending Businesses: Leading private banks now generate up to 25% of income from fee-based services—payments, wealth management, insurance, and digital infrastructure. Non-lending segments like AMCs, brokerages, wealth management, and capital market digital infra have seen outsized market cap creation. For instance, the share of non-bank BFSI in the sector market cap has risen to 43% in 2025, up from 15% in 2005. Fintechs, virtually non-existent a decade ago, now command over Rs 12 lakh crore in market value.

Shareholder Value Creation: Diversified revenue streams have stabilized earnings and reduced credit cycle dependency. BFSI’s share of Nifty earnings has doubled to 33% in FY24 from 16% in FY10, and its weight in the Nifty 50 index has surged to 38%.

The opportunity is in identifying institutions—across lending and non-lending segments—that are actively shaping these trends through digital innovation, robust risk management, and scalable fee-based platforms.

Is this the right time to bet on consumer-focused sectors?

The consumer sector faces a complex set of headwinds:

Distracted, Demanding Consumers: Digital natives are less loyal and more value-driven, fragmenting attention and raising expectations for convenience.

Disrupted Distribution: E-commerce and Q-commerce now account for over 20% of urban FMCG sales, forcing traditional players to rethink go-to-market strategies.

Media Fragmentation: Traditional media ROI is falling, while digital engagement metrics remain fuzzy and evolving.

Weather Impact: An early monsoon has hurt summer-centric categories, compressing critical sales windows.

These challenges have led to a 10–15% sector de-rating, but pockets of high-velocity value creation remain—especially among digital-first brands, platform-based models, and those leveraging rural distribution. Selectivity and adaptability are paramount.

Do you expect the equity market to deliver a healthy double-digit rally over the next 12 months despite intermittent corrections? Also, do you believe the downside is limited from current levels?

Indian equities have delivered a 12–14% CAGR over the last decade. With current valuations at a 15% premium to historical averages, returns are likely to moderate to the 10–12% range, with volatility expected. Strong domestic flows and resilient macro fundamentals cushion the downside, but global shocks—rates, geopolitics—can trigger corrections. Corrections should be used to accumulate high-quality, adaptable franchises.

After July 9, do you think global markets will remain unaffected by further tariff developments?

Tariff uncertainty will persist post-July 9. Even if immediate risks fade, global trade recalibration will continue to drive volatility. While India’s relative insulation helps, it cannot fully escape global shocks. Focus on companies with strong domestic moats and limited global exposure.

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