The major economic releases scheduled this week include the flash monthly purchasing managers index (PMI) readings from major economies like the US, UK and the Eurozone for February, the minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s January-end meeting, the weekly initial jobless claims by the US, and China's Loan Prime Rate for one year and five years.
Also, in the upcoming week, the fourth quarter GDP data (second estimate) from the US will be released.
Let's take a look at the important policy, economic, and business events of the week beginning February 20, 2023:
Here's a schedule of the events:
February 20
Presidents’ Day holiday in US
Financial markets in the United States are closed on account of Presidents Day. The day is celebrated each year on the third Monday of February. The holiday was first established as Washington's Birthday in 1879 to honor President George Washington.
Eurozone Consumer Confidence Flash (February)
Every month, the Directorate-General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN) of the European Commission releases the flash Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for the EU and euro-area aggregates. February month's flash CCI will be published on February 20 (Monday).
In January 2023, DG ECFIN’s flash estimate of the consumer confidence indicator continued its recovery, improving by 1.4 percentage points (pps.) in the EU and 1.1 pps. in the euro area (EA)3. At -22.4 (EU) and ‑20.9 (EA) pps, consumer confidence remains well below its long-term average.
The final Consumer Survey results are published as part of the full Business and Consumer Survey release at the end of the month.
US President Biden’s Travel to Poland
President of the United States Joe Biden will visit Poland from February 20 to 22. He will talk about our bilateral relations as well as our joint initiatives to protect Ukraine and strengthen NATO's deterrence with Polish President Andrzej Duda. In addition, President Biden will make a speech just before Russia's ruthless and unjustified invasion of Ukraine reaches its anniversary.
EU foreign ministers meet in Brussels
On Monday, the EU foreign ministers meeting will get underway. As a result of warnings from Kiev that its military urgently requires more supplies, the European Union is immediately looking into methods for its member nations to work together to buy ammunition to assist Ukraine.
Under the EU's human rights sanctions regime, the ministers will enact sanctions against Iran. On February 24, the first anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine war, yet another round of sanctions against Russia is anticipated to come into effect. The EU ministers will also assess the situation in Afghanistan.
China Loan Prime Rate
China will announce Loan Prime Rate for 1 year and 5 years on February 20 (Monday).
For the month of January, the country's central bank - People's Bank of China - kept the one-year loan prime rate (LPR), which influences most new and outstanding loans, was kept unchanged for a 5th straight month at 3.65%; while the five-year rate, a reference for mortgages, was also kept unchanged for 5th straight month at 4.3%.
(The China Loan Prime Rate (LPR) set by the China central bank is the lending rate provided by commercial banks to their highest quality customers, and serves as the benchmark for rates provided for other loans.)
February 21
Putin to deliver state of the nation address
On February 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin will give the Federal Assembly his State of the Country Address. The address will be delivered as Moscow marks the end of the first year of the war in Ukraine. Putin delivered his previous address to the country’s parliament in April 2021.
Business surveys (PMIs) from US, UK, and Eurozone
The flash monthly purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) readings from the UK, the US, and the Eurozone for the month of February will be out on February 21.
The Flash PMI data are considered leading indicators of economic health. Eurozone economic contraction intensified in October. (Anything below 50 indicates contraction; anything above 50 indicates sector expansion)
(The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an index of the prevailing direction of economic trends in the manufacturing and service sectors. The purpose of the PMI is to provide information about current and future business conditions to company decision-makers, analysts, and investors.)
The January S&P Global flash PMI surveys presented a picture of the economy. Private sector firms in the US registered a further decline in output in January 2023, according to January ‘flash’ PMI data from S&P Global.
US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash February
The seasonally adjusted S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) posted 46.9 in January, up slightly from 46.2 in December and broadly in line with the earlier released 'flash' estimate of 46.8.
US S&P Global Services PMI flash February
The S&P Global Flash US Services Business Activity Index posted 46.6 in January, up from 44.7 in December.
US S&P Composite PMI flash February
The headline Flash US PMI Composite Output Index registered 46.6 in January, up from 45.0 at the end of 2022.
UK Manufacturing PMI flash February
UK manufacturers faced a tough operating environment in January 2023. Output and new orders fell further.
The seasonally adjusted S&P Global / CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) posted 47.0 in January, up from December's 31-month low of 45.3 and above the flash estimate of 46.7. The headline PMI remained at a sub-50.0 level, signaling deterioration, for the sixth successive month.
UK Services PMI flash February
UK service providers started the year with another slight reduction in business activity. The headline seasonally adjusted S&P Global / CIPS UK Services PMI Business Activity Index registered 48.7 in January, down from 49.9 in December, to remain below the neutral 50.0 thresholds for the fourth consecutive month.
UK Composite PMI Flash February
January data highlighted a sustained downturn in UK private sector business activity. The headline seasonally adjusted S&P Global / CIPS Flash UK Composite Output Index registered 47.8 in January, down from 49.0 in December, to remain below the neutral 50.0 threshold for the sixth consecutive month.
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI flash February
Eurozone manufacturing downturn eases further in January and cost pressures fade. The eurozone manufacturing sector downturn continued into the new year, with production volumes and new factory orders falling further.
The S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose for a third successive month to 48.8 in January, up from 47.8 in December. Albeit still below the 50.0 mark, and therefore indicative of a worsening in the health of the euro area manufacturing sector, it was the highest reading since last August.
Eurozone Services PMI flash February
The S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI came in at 50.8 in January 2023, little-changed from a preliminary estimate of 50.7 and above December's 49.8.
Eurozone Composite PMI flash February
Following six successive months of contraction, the eurozone economy produced a marginal expansion at the start of 2023. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index moved into expansion territory in January for the first time since June 2022. At 50.3, this was up for the third month in succession and compared with a reading of 49.3 in December. Overall, the headline figure was indicative of a marginal rate of growth in private sector business activity across the euro area.
February 22
US FOMC Minutes of January meeting
The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release on February 23 the minutes of the Committee's policy meeting held on Jan 31 to Feb 1, 2023. The Fed usually publishes the minutes of its meeting, three weeks after each policy meeting has taken place.
Investors and market observers have been awaiting minutes of the meeting for clues on the health of the economy, the Fed’s thinking on measures to combat high inflation, and the extent of future interest hikes.
The FOMC concluded its January 31-February 1 meeting by raising the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps), taking the rate to a target range of 4.50-4.75 percent.
The report of the minutes from the Fed’s January meeting could offer the committee's stance on monetary policy, give a hint on the latest decision to raise rates, and how officials expect to raise rates in upcoming meetings. It is also an assessment of economic and financial risks for sustaining economic growth. Clues regarding the policy outlook will provide to the markets whether the committee has a bullish tone or a dovish stance.
There are expectations of two more 25-basis point increases at their policy-making meetings in March and May.
February 23
Russia's invasion of Ukraine anniversary
On February 23, it will have been a whole year since Russia invaded Ukraine. There are also no clear indications of a resolution to the war nearly a year after Russian military invaded Ukraine. Neither Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, nor Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, displayed any signs of capitulating.
US Initial Jobless claims (Up to February 18)
The US Labour Department will release data for the week ended February 18 on the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week. The number of Americans filing first-time unemployment claims for the week ended February 11 fell 1,000 to 194,000, according to the figures released by the Labour Department on February 16.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on February 3 that total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 517,000 in January, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.4 percent.
US Q4 GDP 2nd estimate
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent.
The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on February 23, 2023.
Real GDP increased 2.1 percent in 2022 (from the 2021 annual level to the 2022 annual level), compared with an increase of 5.9 percent in 2021.
A comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity, GDP measures the value of the final goods and services produced in the United States (without double counting the intermediate goods and services used up to produce them). Changes in GDP are the most popular indicator of the nation's overall economic health.
February 24
1st G20 Finance Ministers & Central Bank Governors meetings in Bengaluru
On February 24 and 25, Bengaluru, Karnataka, will host the first G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors (FMCBG) summit.
Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors from the G20 nations, as well as leaders of international organisations, will attend. The meeting will be attended by 72 delegations. This meeting will be jointly presided over by RBI Governor Dr Shaktikanta Das and Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.
US Core PCE Price Index
In the United States, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index provides a measure of the prices paid for domestic purchases of goods and services. Consumer spending, or personal consumption expenditures (PCE), is the value of the goods and services purchased by, or on the behalf of, U.S. residents. BEA publishes annual, quarterly, and monthly estimates of consumer spending.
The "core" PCE price index, a way to gauge the economy's strength, is defined as personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices excluding food and energy prices.
The PCE price index in the United States increased by 0.1 percent MoM in December 2022. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Real DPI increased 0.2 percent in December and Real PCE decreased 0.3 percent; goods decreased 0.9 percent and services were unchanged.
Japan CPI for January
In Japan, the Consumer Price Index or CPI measures changes in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services. Consumer Price Index CPI in Japan increased to 104.10 points in December from 103.90 points in November of 2022. Wholesale prices in January rose 9.5% from a year earlier across items as varied as food, steel and chemicals.
Japan's core consumer prices likely accelerated to a more than 41-year high in January, a Reuters poll of 19 economists showed on Febraury 17. The core CPI is set to reach 4.2% in January versus the same month a year earlier, accelerating from December's 4.0%, the poll showed.
BOJ nominee Ueda to address Japan's lower house
Kazuo Ueda, the government’s nominee to become the next Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor, will speak at a confirmation hearing at the lower house of parliament on February 24.
Earnings reports from India & US in the upcoming week
Earnings season will close in India with SpiceJet announcing its 3rd quarter results on February 24.
In the United States, major companies such as Getty Images, Jupiter Wellness (February 20), Walmart, Alcon, CVR Energy (February 21), NVIDIA Corporation, eBay, Bausch + Lomb Corporation (February 22), Alibaba, Moderna, Domino's Pizza, MannKind Corporation (February 23), Berkshire Hathaway (February 24) are set to release their quarterly reports.
(With inputs from Agencies)
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
Find the best of Al News in one place, specially curated for you every weekend.
Stay on top of the latest tech trends and biggest startup news.
