India's overall exports can cross $800 billion in FY26 despite Trump tariffs

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump

India is hopeful that its overall exports will grow in the current financial year despite the impact of US President Trump's reciprocal tariffs, a senior government official said on April 5.

"Overall exports should surpass FY25 levels and come in at over $800 billion in the current fiscal. Merchandise exports too should either rise in FY26 or stay at the same level," this official said.

India will continue to bet on its services exports that has been growing despite global trade disruptions, the official added.

India's cumulative exports (merchandise and services) during April- February of 2024-25 is estimated at $750.53 billion, as compared to $706.43 billion in the same period of 2023-24, an estimated growth of 6.24 percent.

The official added that for the previous financial year of 2024-25, overall exports are likely to touch $800 billion.

India's commerce ministry will detail the trade figures for March 2025 on April 15.

As per the latest available data, merchandise exports during April- February of the previous fiscal year stood at $395.63 billion as compared to $395.38 billion during the same period of 2023-24, while goods imports came in at $656.68 billion versus $621.19 billion.

US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs could cause a contraction of around 1 percent in global merchandise trade volumes in 2025, the World Trade Organization's (WTO) chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said.

"While the situation is rapidly evolving, our initial estimates suggest that these measures, coupled with those introduced since the beginning of the year, could lead to an overall contraction of around 1 percent in global merchandise trade volumes this year," Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala added.

While, Trump slapped 10 percent import duties on all nations, he imposed additional levies on a slew of countries, including 16 percent more on India.