US dependence on China for farm exports has more than doubled in 7 years

China's retaliatory tariffs put $22 billion of trade in jeopardy

The US may have fired the opening shots in the tariff war with China, it, too, will bear the brunt of hostilities with one of its biggest trading partners, with nearly $22 billion worth of its exports in jeopardy.

A Moneycontrol analysis has found that the US’ reliance on the Chinese market has grown over the past seven years. While 8 percent of US exports of agriculture and food products were headed to China in 2018, these rose to 18.1 percent in 2024. In 2022, right after the pandemic, nearly a quarter of US farm exports were headed to China.

Earlier this week, China announced retaliatory tariffs on American agricultural products, including chicken, pork, soybeans, and cotton.

The US dependence on China for oilseeds and cotton exports is even greater. China accounted for 11.3 percent of US cotton exports in 2018, which grew to 24 percent in 2024.

Similarly, 16.4 percent of the oilseeds exported by America headed to China in 2018 and increased to 44.5 percent in 2024 .

“Intimidation does not scare us. Bullying does not work on us. Pressuring, coercion or threats are not the right way of dealing with China. Anyone using maximum pressure on China is picking the wrong guy and miscalculating…If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end,” the official X account of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China, posted on March 4.

The post came after another 10 percent duty on Chinese goods kicked in, adding to a 10 percent tariff imposed by President Donald Trump in early February 4.

China hit back with additional tariffs of up to 15 percent on US farm products.

Not many options

Trump’s tariff war hasn’t left the US with many export options. He has slapped 25 percent tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, his country's other two biggest trade partners. Canada has already announced retaliatory measures and Mexico is expected to do the same. The US may also face action from the EU for its duties on steel and aluminium products.

The US’ reliance on not just China but also Mexico, Canada and the EU markets has risen over the past seven years, Moneycontrol found.

These countries together accounted for 56 percent of US import of farm products in 2024, up from 42 percent in 2018.

The reliance on prepared food stuff like sugar and sugar confectionary and preparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk; pastrycooks' products was even higher, with 79 percent of US exports headed to these four geographies.