Southern states' share in India's GDP has caught up with that of North, Central India: MC Analysis

South's share in Indian economy has grown

The five southern states have caught up with North and Central India over the last five decades when it comes to the economy, even as their population has declined during this period, according to a Moneycontrol analysis.

India's five southern states' share in gross domestic product now accounts for 30.8 percent in 2023-24, compared to 31.7 percent for northern states.

In comparison, the contribution of northern states in Indian economy was 40 percent higher than that of South India in 1970-71, which had a 24.6 percent share in India’s GDP. Now, five decades later, the share of southern states has grown to nearly as much as Northern and central parts of the country.

Meanwhile, the share of southern states in India's overall population has shrunk, while the North’s dominion has grown. The southern states had a 24 percent share in population during the 1971 census, based on which delimitation was conducted, which has likely shrunk to 19.7 percent in 2023.

As the deadline for delimitation approaches next year, the growing economic prowess is one factor that the less populous southern states are citing as a case for freezing the shares for another 25 years.

The last delimitation was conducted in 1973. In 2002, the National Democratic Alliance government under Atal Bihari Vajpayee at that time had put a freeze on delimitation for 25 years.

“It is about our power, our rights, and the interests of our future. With the reduction in representation, our States will have to struggle even to get the funds we rightfully deserve,” Tamil Nadu chief minister MK Stalin said on March 23.

No Clear Winners

Earlier analysis by Moneycontrol had found that there are unlikely to be any clear winners in the delimitation exercise. If the seat shares are held constant, then Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan are likely to be at least 10 percent under-represented. On the other hand, states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh are bound to lose out if population is made the criterion for delimitation.

Tamil Nadu’s contribution to the Indian economy went up to 8.9 percent in 2023-24 from 7.3 percent in 1970-71, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana’s share jumped to 9.7 percent from 7.7 percent, whereas UP’s share in India’s GDP reduced from 13 to 9.5 percent. The share of Bihar and Jharkhand stands lower at 4.3 percent, versus 6.9 percent in 1970-71.