Population-based delimitation to hit Tamil Nadu; Bihar under-represented if freeze continues

Tamil Nadu has been demanding fair delimitation, but there is nothing fair about delimitation

Tamil Nadu, which currently accounts for 7.2 percent of seats in the Lok Sabha, would lose at least 15 seats and end up with 49 seats or a 5.5 percent share of the new 888-member house if population is used as a criterion for delimitation post-2026, according to a Moneycontrol analysis.

Bihar, on the other hand, would be 20 percent under-represented in Lok Sabha if there is a freeze on delimitation.

The southern states have been demanding a freeze on delimitation for another 25 years, calling the population-based criterion an attack on successful family planning carried out by these states.

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin held a conference with opposition parties to demand a “fair delimitation”.

If population is considered the criterion and seats are increased to 888—the seating capacity of the new house—Tamil Nadu would end up with at least 30 percent fewer seats than the current house.

However, if a standard factor of 1.64 times is used to increase the number of seats across the board regardless of the population, Tamil Nadu and Kerala will gain more than others, but Rajasthan, Bihar and UP will lose out more.

Kerala will have 33 seats compared with 22 or 23 as per population.

On the other hand, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Bihar are set to have fewer seats if the fixed factor formula is considered  UP, which would have had 148 seats of the 888-member house as per population, would end up with 131.

Rajasthan’s seat share would decline from 52 to 41 and Bihar’s from 80 to 65 based on fixed factor criterion.

The delimitation exercise to be carried out post-2026 is unlikely to have any winner as southern states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala will lose out the most if population becomes a deciding factor, while Bihar, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh will become under-represented if the 1971 Census is used as a yardstick.

An earlier analysis had found that Tamil Nadu’s share in India’s population likely declined to 5.5 percent in 2023 compared with 7.5 percent in the 1971 Census, based on which the last delimitation exercise was conducted in 1973.

Kerala’s share was down 1.3 percent during this period, but Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Rajasthan witnessed at least a percentage point rise in their share of the population.

Mixed approach

There is another approach that the yet-to-be-constituted delimitation commission could follow, where it could keep the 543 seats based on 1971 census, but apply population criterion to the remaining 345 seats.

Uttar Pradesh in this scenario ends up with 138 seats instead of 131 under fixed factor formula, but lower than 148 based on population criterion. Tamil Nadu’s seats would go up to 58 instead of 49 under the population-based rule and 64 as per fixed factor.

Would delimitation have favoured BJP?

Bharatiya Janata Party’s fortunes would not have changed much in the 2024 elections following either of the approaches.

The party won 44 percent or 239 seats in the 543-member house in 2024, losing its majority The population-based criteria would have helped it win just 11 more seats or 2 percentage points more seats and taken it to the 250-mark, where it would still need allies to form the government, whereas the mixed approach would have accorded it 1 percent or 5 more seats taking the tally to 244 seats.