India would need over 1,600 parliamentarians if size of a constituency is limited to 1 million people: MC Analysis

India's constituencies would need to triple if size is limited to 1 million people

India would need at least 1,600 constituencies if it were to keep the number of people per constituency fixed at 1 million, according to a Moneycontrol analysis.

Data from the Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies shows that the average size of the population per constituency in 2020 stood at 2.5 million, nearly 2.5 times the size decided during the delimitation exercise conducted five decades ago in 1973.

The 1973 delimitation, which increased the number of constituencies to 543 for the Lok Sabha, had an average of 1 million electors per constituency. To limit the size of the population per constituency to 1 million, India would need to add another 1,000 constituencies during this period.

The new Parliament building has provision to seat 888 members in the Lower House.

With the next decision on delimitation (2026) drawing closer, a war of words has erupted between the Opposition and the ruling bloc. Tamil Nadu chief minister MK Stalin has called for fair delimitation, calling the population-based delimitation unfair for states that carried out successful family planning measures.

If the size of the constituency goes up to 1.5 million, the number of constituencies would still be higher at 927, more than the new Lok Sabha can accommodate.

However, the government would be in a comfortable position if the number of people per constituency hovers between 1.5 and 2 million. A 2-million cap would mean India would have a 700-member Lower House.

The size of the electorate—people who are eligible to vote—per constituency as per Election Commission data was 1.8 million in 2024 compared with the 0.59 million average in 1971.

Will an increase benefit larger states?

A Parliament with over 1,600 members is unlikely to significantly benefit larger states that have witnessed a spurt in population like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar or Rajasthan.

Uttar Pradesh, which had a 14.7 percent share in the current Lok Sabha with 80 seats, is likely to end up with a slightly higher proportion at 15.4 percent. Bihar’s seat share will go up from 7.4 percent to 8 percent, whereas Rajasthan’s will increase to 5.4 percent from 4.6 percent.

Tamil Nadu’s share will come down from 7.2 percent to 6.7 percent, while Kerala’s will decline to 3.4 percent from 3.7 percent.

However, if the average size of constituencies were to increase to 1.5 million, northern states stand to gain more. Uttar Pradesh’s share would go up to 16.4 percent, in proportion to its population in 2023, while Bihar’s will rise to 8.5 percent.

Tamil Nadu’s share will slip to 5.9 percent, lower than Madhya Pradesh’s 6 percent share.

An earlier analysis by Moneycontrol had found that if there is a freeze on delimitation—as is the demand by the Opposition—northern states would be at least 10 percent under-represented. However, a population-based delimitation would see the participation of states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala shrink by 30 percent.

Hypothetically, had the delimitation exercise been completed prior to the 2024 general election, the gains for the Bharatiya Janata Party would have likely been limited, as it would have gained only 5-11 seats and still remained below simple majority mark.