India's gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of the fiscal year 2021-22 grew at 8.4 percent, official data released on November 30 showed.
The numbers mark a significant increase as compared to the COVID-19-hit second quarter of last fiscal year, when the GDP had declined by 7.4 percent.
"GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q2 2021-22 is estimated at Rs 35.73 lakh crore, as against Rs 32.97 lakh crore in Q2 2020-21, showing a growth of 8.4 percent as compared to 7.4 percent contraction in Q2 2020-21," the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation said.
In the previous quarter of FY22, the Indian economy had grown at a record pace of 20.1 percent.
The gross value added (GVA) in Q2 has grown by 8.5 percent, as compared to a decline of 7.3 percent in the same quarter last year. In Q1 of FY22, the GVA had sharply surged by 18.8 percent.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) in the July-September quarter rose by 8.61 percent on year in Q2, but down from a rise of 19.35 percent on year in Q1.
The GDP numbers for the second quarter were mostly in line with the projections by leading brokerages and financial institutions.
For instance, India Ratings had projected the economy to grow 8.3 percent in Q2 and close the year with 9.4 percent in FY22. The agency had attributed the higher growth to the nine consecutive quarters of over three percent agriculture growth, which had brightened consumer spending.
SBI Research had predicted the country's GDP growth to be around 8.1 percent for the second quarter and in the range of 9.3-9.6 percent during fiscal 2022.
A report prepared by the economists at private lender HDFC Bank had estimated the September quarter growth at 7.3 percent when looked at from a GVA basis. The gap between GDP and GVA is likely to be driven by higher tax revenue collection and lower subsidy pay-outs in this quarter, said the report released on November 24.
Wall Street brokerage Goldman Sachs on November 23 estimated India's GDP growth at 9.1 percent in 2022. After India's economy contracted by a sharp 7 percent in 2020, Goldman Sachs pegged the economy to grow at 8 percent in 2021 and 9.1 percent in 2022.
Suvodeep Rakshit, Senior Economist at Kotak Institutional Equities, said the growth should remain "fairly well supported in Q3 FY22 too on account of festive season and opening up of services sector too.""Growth remains well on track for a full year growth of around 9.5 percent. The growth numbers will unlikely play a differentiating factor for the RBI’s policy with its own estimate being at 7.9 percent. With a new Covid variant starting to spread globally and uncertainty on its impact on the economic scenario, the RBI would possibly wait for some more clarity before moving decisively on the rates. We maintain our call for a reverse repo rate hike in February with the December meeting remaining a close call," Rakshit added.