ICICI Securities's research report on Greenpanel Industries
Greenpanel Industries’ (GREENP) consol. revenue dipped 10.1% YoY in Q1FY26 as MDF revenue fell 10.8% YoY. Blended MDF volume slumped 14.3% YoY (flat QoQ; 6-year CAGR of 4.9%) with an 8.6% YoY decline in domestic volume (+1.9% QoQ; 6-year CAGR of 11.7%) due to discontinuation of OEM SKUs (on BIS implementation); whereas, exports slowed 39.7% YoY due to geopolitical issues. Reported MDF OPM fell 770bps YoY (-1190bps QoQ) and appeared higher due to EPCG benefits (adj. OPM contracted 796bps YoY/205bps QoQ). Management maintains guidance for ~30% YoY MDF volume growth (driven by higher utilisation of new plant) and MDF OPM of 12% in FY26. We cut FY26E/FY27E EBITDA by ~12%/14% and downgrade to HOLD (from Add) due to the stock price rallying 21% in the past 3 months; our Jun’26E TP is revised to INR 266, set at an unchanged P/E of 20x.
Outlook
We believe the key thing to watch out for is the delivery on volume growth and OPM guidance, as that would help establish it in regaining lost market share. Downgrade to HOLD (from Add), post the stock price rally of ~21% in the past 3 months with a revised Jun’26E target price of INR266 (earlier INR 284), set an unchanged 20x PER.
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