Buy TCI Express; target of Rs 900: ICICI Securities

ICICI Securities is bullish on TCI Express has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 900 in its research report dated August 18, 2025.

Broker Research

August 18, 2025 / 16:47 IST

BUY

26 Aug, 2025 12:21

Volume

Todays L/H

ICICI Securities's research report on TCI Express

TCI Express’ (TCIE) Q1FY26 EBITDA was slightly below consensus estimates. Key points: 1) Volume fell 0.9% YoY to 233kte (235kte in Q1FY25) on subdued demand. 2) EBITDA margin improved QoQ to 9.8% (vs. 8.5% in Q4FY25 and 11.2% in Q1FY25), mainly on account of 75bps price hike and stable variable costs in Q1. 3) Added 10 branches in Q1. 4) Capacity utilisation dipped to 82%. 5) Incurred capex of INR 129mn; plans to incur capex of INR 1bn in FY26. Going ahead, the management has guided for i) 11-12% revenue growth, supported by volume growth of 8-9% and price hike of 200bps in FY26 and ii) EBITDA margin may have bottomed out. We have factored in 9%/11% revenue growth in our estimates for FY26/27, respectively. Maintain BUY with a revised TP of INR 900 (earlier INR 921), based on 28x FY27E EPS.

Outlook

We have marginally reduced our EPS by 4.8%/2.5% for FY26/27E, respectively. We maintain BUY on the stock with a revised TP of INR 900 (earlier INR 921), based on an unchanged multiple of 28x FY27E EPS.

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