Crude oil futures down nearly 1% at Rs 3,471, Brent trades above $50 a barrel

Crude oil futures slipped around a percent to Rs 3,442 per barrel on December 11 on worries over rising coronavirus cases and an increase in US crude inventories.

Chris Midgley, Global Director of Analytics, S&P Global Platts said, “Balances are improving, albeit gradually, with optimism on a COVID-19 vaccine and OPEC+ supply restraint adding support to the market in recent weeks. Moreover, forecasts call for a warmer-than-normal winter and waning OPEC+ compliance remains a risk. S&P Global Platts Analytics sees fundamental weakness in prompt Dated Brent structure with a flat price likely to remain soft in low-to-mid $40s/barrel range this winter despite recent jumps."

The Middle East geopolitical premium is back in markets as concerns over attack on an Iraqi oilfield lent support to the crude prices.

Tapan Patel- Senior Analyst (Commodities), HDFC securities said, “Crude oil prices traded up on the demand growth prospects as vaccine rollouts begin in the UK while the US may start the process in coming weeks. The approval of the vaccine from the UK, Canada and possibility from the US has raised optimism for fuel demand recovery. The lift in demand from China and India has also supported oil prices to trade firm.”

We expect crude oil prices to trade sideways to up with support at $45.50 and resistance at $48. MCX Crude oil December has support at Rs 3,390, resistance at Rs 3,510.

West Texas Intermediate crude was down 0.09 percent quoting at $46.74 per barrel, while Brent crude, the London-based international benchmark eased 0.206 percent to $50.15 per barrel.

MCX iCOMDEX Crude Oil Index inched lower 33.30 points, or 0.81 percent, at 3,959.23 at 16:28.

In the futures market, crude oil for December delivery touched an intraday high of Rs 3,480 and an intraday low of Rs 3,433 per barrel on MCX. So far in the current series, black gold has touched a low of Rs 2,594 and a high of Rs 3,522.

Crude oil delivery for December slipped Rs 29, or 0.83 percent, to Rs 3,448 per barrel at 16:29 hours IST with a business turnover of 2,006 lots.

Crude oil delivery for January declined Rs 31, or 0.89 percent, to Rs 3,471 per barrel with a business volume of 90 lots.

The value of December and January’s contracts traded so far is Rs 334.17 crore and Rs 1.63 crore, respectively.

Trading strategy

Ravindra Rao, VP- Head Commodity Research at Kotak Securities

“NYMEX crude trades higher lower $46.6/bbl amid rising virus cases, a surge in US crude stocks and disappointing US economic data that is limiting the upside. However vaccine progress, OPEC’s gradual production hike stance, weakness in US dollar and ECB’s monetary easing measures are supporting the bulls. Recently, crude has edged up after a brief consolidation indicating upward momentum however we may not see a sustained rise as demand outlook remains challenged by rising virus cases.”

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