Madhya Pradesh Polls 2023: If 2018 repeats, BJP and Congress are fighting a six-in-one election

Madhya Pradesh Polls 2023:

With the last date for nominations nearing (October 30), both the parties have released their candidate list, Congress on all 230 and BJP on 228 seats. Rebellions have broken out with leaders of both parties leaving and joining BSP, other smaller parties, or announcing to contest as Independents. Congress has had to even change candidates on seven seats.

Meanwhile, regional variations are a key factor making Madhya Pradesh a touch-and-go election as per surveys.

MP can be divided into six regions: Baghelkhnd, Gwalior-Chambal, Malwa, Bhopal, Mahakoshal and Nimar. Baghelkhand comprises Bundelkhand and Vindhya Pradesh. Baghelkhand is the largest region with 56 seats and Bhopal the smallest with 25 seats.

Some commentators club Malwa-Nimar as one region, while keeping Bundelkhand and Vindhya separate. Bhopal is also called as Madhya Bharat by some analysts.

In 2018, when Congress ended 15 years of BJP rule in the state, both parties were leading in three regions each. Congress made significant gains in Chambal, Mahakoshal and Nimar to emerge as the single largest party with 114 seats, just two short of majority with BJP managing 109 seats.

In short there was no uniform surge for either party across the state. Opinion polls are suggesting a similar scenario this time also making the regional contests just as interesting and important in deciding the final outcome.

Baghelkhand: Water Woes, Caste Matters, BJP’s Bastion (56 seats)

BJP has swept Baghelkhand region in the last three polls 2008-18, bagging two-third of the seats. Water scarcity is a big issue in the Bundelkhand sub-zone, which in turn affects agriculture and livelihoods. Unemployment and the demand for a separate state are big issues here.

Savarn Andolan was a big issue in 2018 in the Vindhya sub-zone, currently unemployment is a major concern. Vindhya has more upper caste population while Bundelkhand has more OBC and SC. BSP has a good presence here as some districts share a border with UP. C-Voter suggests Congress could make significant gains here in 2023.

Bhopal: Urban, Polarised, And With BJP (25 seats)

This is BJP’s second stronghold zone, the party winning it every time in the last three polls. It is an urban/semi-urban area and Hindutva, communal politics and polarisation play a key role here. Minority population, which is roughly 3 percent in rural areas in MP, is 15 percent in Bhopal’s urban areas.

Socio-economic class also comes into play here as cities host a lot of urban poor in slums. Implementation of OPS is an issue here as state government employees reside here. Both of Congress’s only Muslim candidates in MP come from this region.

Mahakoshal: Which Kamal Will Bloom? (42 seats)

The region is dominated by tribals, followed by upper castes. The BJP has had an upper hand in the region till 2013. In 2018, Congress wrested this region as it is in Kamal Nath’s sphere of influence. The statue of Rani Durgavati is an emotive issue here. The SC-ST Atrocities Act was also a big issue here in 2018.

PM Narendra Modi has laid foundation stone for 'Veerangana Rani Durgavati Smarak aur Udyaan' to be built at a cost of about Rs 100 crore in Jabalpur. Gondwana Gantantra Party with which BSP has formed an alliance has a good presence in this region.

Gwalior-Chambal: The Scindia Factor (34 seats)

The royal family of Gwalior is a major influencer in the region. In 2018, with Jyotiraditya Scindia by its side, the Congress party dealt a major blow to the BJP, sweeping the region bagging 26 seats.

The region was a hotbed of both SC protests and Savarn Andolan in the state. BSP historically has a good presence in this region. With Scindia now in BJP, will the saffron party make a comeback in this region? Surveys suggest otherwise and indicate a losing grip of Scindia.

Malwa: The Farm Vote (45 seats)

Malwa is the second biggest region and a BJP stronghold. The world famous Mahakal temple is in Ujjain. This region is also the focal point of agrarian distress. The Mandsaur firing incident in 2018 happened in this region where six farmers lost their lives.

The farm loan waiver is a key issue here. MP has the fourth highest farmer suicides by state. The state government has an income support scheme providing Rs 6,000 annually to farmers in addition to the Rs 6,000 under PM Kisan Nidhi. BJP hopes this will save the day for the party.

Nimar: The Tribal Heartland  (28 seats)

Nimar is the tribal belt of MP. 19 of the 47 ST reserved seats fall in this region. Congress made big gains in this region riding on the SC-ST Atrocities Act issue and its tie up with JAYS (Jai Adivasi Yuva Shakti) in 2018.

Three Regions BJP Strongholds, Congress Has None

BJP has been leading in Baghelkhand, Bhopal and Malwa in the last three elections since delimitation. Congress wrested Chambal (Scindia area), Mahakaushal (Kamal Nath area) and Nimar (ST belt) in 2018. BSP, smaller parties and independents can disturb the equations of both parties in Baghelkhand and Gwalior-Chambal.

To sum up, the six regions have different dialects, food habits and traditions. This is also one of the primary reasons why there is an absence of the asmita factor in MP.

Parties need to formulate different strategies for different regions which increases the complexity. A six-in-one election is as difficult as it gets.

Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.